Kasi Kicks Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every allocation, pricing, markdown, cost and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.

Key Assumptions

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14.1 Range, volume and pricing
14.2 Cost, capital and funding
14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

14.1 Range, volume and pricing

Assumption	Year 1	Year 5	Basis
Stores trading	1	4	Two funded at launch; store two opens early in Year 2
Trading area a store	185 m²	185 m²	Prime mall footwear space
Pairs sold	7 252	49 239	9 800 a store a year at maturity, about 27 a day
Online share of units	0%	18%	Introduced in Year 2 once the stock file is accurate
Blended realised price	R1 219	R1 528	After markdown, across all tiers; escalated at 5.8%
Blended list price	R1 360		Realised price reflects 73% full-price sell-through
Gross profit a pair	R571		46.8% gross margin at Year 1 prices
Landed cost a pair	R648		Escalated at 6.2%, faster than selling prices
Tier-zero and limited share	4%	4%	Rationed by the brand; 9.7% of gross profit
Premium and core general release	70%	70%	The range any credible account can buy
Full-price sell-through	73%	73%	Against a degraded industry norm near 50%
Trading density, store revenue only	R47 797/m²	R83 358/m²	Break-even is R33 387

14.2 Cost, capital and funding

Assumption	Value	Basis
Variable cost a pair, store	R101	Card fees R38, shrinkage R27, packaging R21, inbound freight R15
Online fulfilment a pair	R118	Picking, packaging, delivery and returns handling
Contribution a pair	R470	38.6% of the realised price
Store fixed costs	R2 381 560 a store	R12 873 per m²; payroll and rent are 83% of it
Store payroll	R1 130 860	6 people; base R1 107 600 plus 2.1% statutory contributions
Central payroll	R2 199 234	5 roles; base R2 154 000 plus 2.1% statutory contributions
Capital expenditure	R6 190 000	Fit-out for two stores, warehouse, systems and vehicle
Store fit-out	R1 950 000 a store	Depreciated over seven years
Opening stock	R5 200 000	Two stores and the warehouse, at R2 600 000 a store
Total funding requirement	R16 130 000	32.2% of it is opening stock
Stock turns	4.2 times	Against an industry median near 4.4
Supplier credit	34 days
Promoter and investor equity	R10 300 000	63.9% of the funding
Debt and asset finance	R5 830 000	Five years at 13.46%
Stock facility	R6 500 000	Committed at drawdown; peaks at R1 421 546 drawn
Taxation	SBC rates below R20m turnover, then 27%	Section 20 limitation applied to early losses
Exit multiple	5.0x Year 5 EBITDA	Specialist retail; a substantial part of the value is realisable stock

14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

Assumption	Modelled	Verification required	Consequence if wrong
Allocation of 4% limited and 26% premium general release	Held flat across the projection	Signed brand agreements with indicative allocation by tier and by door	The mix shifts toward carryover at R257 a pair against R812. No operational remedy exists
Trading density of R83 358 per m² at maturity	From R47 797 in Year 1	Comparable footwear density from the target centres, and the landlord’s own turnover data	Break-even is R33 387. The whole model is built on this number
Full-price sell-through of 73%	Held flat	Sell-through by size from a comparable independent, over a full season	Against a degraded industry norm near 50%. An 8-point shortfall costs R3 310 338
The size curve, with 70.6% of demand in four sizes	Applied to every buy	Historic sell-through by size from the brands or a comparable retailer	Worth 20.5% of gross profit on identical stock
Gross profit of R571 a pair	46.8% gross margin	Brand price lists, landed cost including duty and freight, and the markdown plan	Landed cost escalates at 6.2% against selling prices at 5.8%
Stock turns of 4.2	Against an industry median near 4.4	Stock cover by style and by size, measured monthly	Stock is 12.9% of revenue and exceeds the facility from Year 4
9 800 pairs a store a year	About 27 a day	Footfall and conversion data from the target centres	Break-even is 5 067 pairs, or 14 a day

The list is ordered by consequence, and the first two are the ones a funder should test hardest. Allocation determines what the business is allowed to sell and cannot be improved by effort; trading density determines whether the store can carry the central function that makes the chain work. Everything below them affects how good the business is rather than whether it exists.

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