Kasi Kicks Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Allocation: What You Are Allowed to Sell
- 2. Executive Summary
- 3. The Size Curve: Where Footwear Margin Is Lost
- 4. The Store and the Channel
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Organisation and Compliance
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. Risk Analysis
- 12. Implementation Roadmap
- 13. Key Performance Indicators
- 14. Key Assumptions
- 15. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Allocation, Size Curve and Store Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Stock Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likely |
Impact |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Allocation below plan |
High |
Severe |
The plan assumes 4% limited and 26% premium general release. If brands allocate less the mix shifts toward carryover at R257 a pair against R812. No operational remedy exists; signed agreements must precede any lease |
|
Size curve discipline fails |
Medium |
Severe |
Worth 20% of gross profit on identical stock. Mitigated by a merchandise planner from Year 1 with authority to refuse a pre-packed assortment |
|
Trading density below plan |
High |
Severe |
Break-even is R33387 per m² against a mature R83358. Mitigated by site selection as a condition precedent rather than an operational task |
|
Stock exceeds the facility |
High |
High |
Stock reaches R9670100 against a R6 500 000 facility and exceeds it from Year 4. Mitigated by retaining earnings; no distribution is modelled |
|
Market does not grow |
High |
High |
Forecast growth of 2.15% a year. Every pair is taken from an incumbent with greater buying power |
|
Counterfeit line accepted in good faith |
Low |
Severe |
A single counterfeit line ends the brand relationship and the account is not reopened. Mitigated by buying only through authorised channels and proving provenance on every delivery |
|
Markdown cascade deepens |
High |
High |
At a landed cost of R648 a pair discounted 55% earns nothing. Mitigated by size-curve discipline; markdown is a symptom rather than a lever |
|
Loss of a brand account |
Medium |
Severe |
Termination provisions in the supply agreements should be understood before a five-year lease is signed against them |
|
Landlord turnover clause |
Medium |
Medium |
Mall leases carry turnover rent and monthly trading disclosure; strong density protects the negotiation |
|
Shrinkage above plan |
Medium |
Medium |
Footwear is a high-theft category; R27 a pair is budgeted with security carried in store fixed costs |
|
Online returns above plan |
Medium |
Medium |
Fit uncertainty drives footwear returns. Mitigated by size guidance and by introducing online only in Year 2 once the stock file is accurate |
|
Currency movement on imported stock |
High |
Medium |
Vietnam, China and Indonesia are the dominant supply origins; landed cost escalates at 6.2% against selling prices at 5.8% |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Before any lease |
Fewer than three signed brand agreements |
Do not sign. The range is the business and it is granted, not bought |
|
Month 6 |
Trading density below R45 000 per m² |
Review site, range and staffing before opening store two |
|
Any season |
Full-price sell-through below 65% |
The size curve is failing. Audit the buy by size before the next order is committed |
|
Any month |
Stock cover above 110 days |
Buying is running ahead of selling; freeze the open-to-buy |
|
Before each store |
Forward trading density below R60 000 per m² at the existing stores |
Do not open. Central cost is already carried; a weak store dilutes it |
|
Any time |
A delivery without full provenance documentation |
Reject it. A single counterfeit line ends the brand relationship |