Tarlton Beetroot Business Plan — Risk Analysis and Register

Water, price, agronomic and execution risk scored by likelihood and impact, with mitigations and trigger points.

Section 19 of 37

Risk Analysis and Register

Jump to section

Fourteen risks assessed. Three are severe, unhedgeable and central to the investment decision.

Figure 1. Risk heat map. Risk identifiers correspond to the register below.

Table 29 Risk register

ID	Risk	Prob.	Impact	Rating	Mitigation and owner
R1	Beetroot price falls materially below assumption	High	High	Severe	Migrate volume to contracted retail; hold informal channel as a floor; contract Year 4 and 5 volume on seasonal fixed price. No hedge exists. Owner: Commercial Manager.
R2	Funding shortfall — committed capital does not cover the base case	High	High	Severe	R7.5 million working capital facility as a condition precedent to Series A; weekly cash monitoring from month 30; ability to defer the second in-field irrigation tranche. Owner: Managing Director.
R3	Water entitlement not verified or reduced on validation	Medium	High	Severe	Independent hydrological and legal verification before transfer; entitlement is a condition precedent to drawdown and bond. Owner: Managing Director.
R4	Retail agreements not secured or secured late	Medium	High	High	Begin engagement in Year 1; fund paid trials; lead with certification; maintain municipal market capacity as fallback at a R3.50/kg realisation penalty. Owner: Commercial Manager.
R5	Hail or severe weather event	Medium	High	High	Crop insurance at R3,900 per hectare-cycle; staggered planting spreads exposure across the season; rotation block diversifies. Owner: Production Manager.
R6	Yield underperformance against 51–54 t/ha assumption	Medium	High	High	Independent agronomic consultant; boron programme; cultivar trials on the Phase 1 block; break-even yield is 30.6 t/ha, giving 43 per cent headroom. Owner: Production Manager.
R7	Customer concentration — loss of one of two retail accounts	Medium	High	High	Actively pursue a third account from Year 4; maintain market agent relationship; staged volume commitments. Owner: Commercial Manager.
R8	Key-person dependency before month 27	Medium	High	High	Key-person insurance; retained agronomic consultant; early appointment of Commercial Manager at month 13. Owner: Board.
R9	Land tenure and expropriation policy	Low	High	High	Clean title, productive use, compliant employment, community engagement. No insurance instrument exists. Owner: Board.
R10	Interest rate increase on prime-linked debt	Medium	Medium	Moderate	Modelled at prime 10.50 per cent; a 200 basis point rise reduces Year 5 DSCR from 2.54 to approximately 2.21, which remains within covenant. Owner: Financial Manager.
R11	Electricity tariff escalation above the 5.8 per cent assumption	High	Low	Moderate	100 kWp solar from month 31; off-peak pumping scheduling; drip rather than overhead irrigation. Owner: Production Manager.
R12	Labour cost escalation and labour relations	Medium	Medium	Moderate	Modelled at 5.8 per cent, above revenue escalation; compliant conditions; selective mechanisation of land preparation only. Owner: Production Manager.
R13	Food safety incident or certification loss	Low	High	Moderate	GLOBALG.A.P. systems; potable wash water with chlorination and monitoring; traceability from block to pallet; product liability cover. Owner: Packhouse Manager.
R14	VAT refund delay from SARS	Medium	Low	Low	1.5 month lag already modelled; monthly filing; complete supporting documentation; overdraft facility bridges timing. Owner: Financial Manager.