Tarlton Beetroot Business Plan — Appendix B: Detailed Assumptions Register
The full assumption register behind the model, stated line by line for independent testing.
Section 36 of 37
Appendix B: Detailed Assumptions Register
Jump to section
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company, Structure and Stage of Development
- 4. Customer Problem, Value Proposition and Monetisation
- 5. Products, Portfolio and Unit Economics
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis and Sizing
- 8. Customer and Channel Analysis
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model: Agronomy and Production
- 13. Operating Model: Post-Harvest, Packhouse and Logistics
- 14. Water, Energy and Land: The Three Binding Constraints
- 15. Management and Organisation
- 16. Strategic Plan
- 17. SWOT Analysis
- 18. Risk Analysis and Register
- 19. ESG and Development Impact
- 20. Implementation Roadmap
- 21. Financial Assumptions
- 22. Projected Income Statement
- 23. Projected Balance Sheet
- 24. Projected Cash Flow
- 25. Capital Expenditure and Working Capital
- 26. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 27. Break-even Analysis
- 28. Debt Serviceability
- 29. Investment Returns and Valuation
- 30. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 31. Phase 3: Processing Optionality
- 32. Key Performance Indicators and Management Dashboard
- 33. Conclusion and Investment Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Monthly Projections, Year 1
- B. Appendix B: Detailed Assumptions Register
- C. Appendix C: Glossary
Table 62 Assumptions register
|
Assumption |
Value |
Source or reasoning |
|---|---|---|
|
Yield, Year 1 to Year 5, t per ha-cycle |
38 / 44 / 49 / 51 / 54 |
Documented South African commercial range of 40 to 60 t/ha under irrigation; a learning curve applied to Year 1 |
|
Cropping intensity, ha-cycles per ha per year |
1.95 to 2.15 |
90 to 110 day cycles with land preparation between; conservative against a theoretical 2.4 |
|
Field and pack-out loss |
8% |
Grading loss to Class 2 and outgrade, which is separately monetised through the processing channel |
|
Plant population |
500,000 to 600,000 per ha |
Rows at 20 cm, in-row 5 to 10 cm |
|
Seasonal yield index |
0.82 (July) to 1.08 (December) |
Highveld frost incidence and growing degree days |
|
Seasonal price index |
Inverse of yield; peak June to August |
Johannesburg market historical seasonality |
|
Agent commission |
7.5% |
Standard market agent mandate |
|
Market levy |
5.0% |
Municipal market charge |
|
Rotation gross margin |
40% |
Blended sweetcorn, cabbage, butternut and green beans at R125,000 per ha-cycle revenue |
|
Depreciation, farm improvements |
10 years straight line |
Book life; tax deduction accelerated under the First Schedule |
|
Depreciation, plant and packhouse |
8 years straight line |
Book life |
|
Depreciation, vehicles |
5 years straight line |
Book life |
|
Land appreciation for exit |
5.5% per annum |
Long-run South African irrigated farmland; applied only to the exit calculation |
|
Exit multiple |
6.0 times EBITDA |
Midpoint of observed South African fresh produce transaction evidence |
|
Cost of equity |
18.5% |
Land-backed agricultural equity |
|
Working capital facility cost |
prime + 4.00% |
Unarranged; priced as an overdraft |
C