Cattle Baron Master Business Plan — Break-Even
Break-even at 377 breeding cows against 450 planned by Year 5, and what that narrow margin of safety means for the build.
Break-Even
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. A Note on the Name
- 3. The Market and the FMD Crisis
- 4. Foot-and-Mouth Disease as a Business Risk
- 5. The Production System
- 6. Herd Performance
- 7. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 8. Grazing, Land and Water
- 9. Unit Economics
- 10. Route to Market
- 11. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 12. Funding
- 13. People, Security and Stock Theft
- 14. Compliance and Traceability
- 15. Financial Projections
- 16. Break-Even
- 17. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 18. Risk Management
- 19. Implementation Timeline
- 20. Returns
- 21. Key Performance Indicators
- 22. Key Assumptions
- 23. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Measure |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Cash gross margin per cow, Year 5 |
R4 780 |
After grazing, licks, veterinary and marketing |
|
Fixed cost base, Year 5 |
R1.80m |
Labour, owner remuneration, security, repairs, transport, administration, insurance |
|
Break-even herd |
377 breeding cows |
Fixed cost base divided by cash gross margin per cow |
|
Average cows, Year 4 |
300 |
Below break-even |
|
Average cows, Year 5 |
400 |
Above break-even; crossed during the year |
|
Break-even weaner price |
R52.51 per kg |
At Year 5 herd size and cost base |
|
Planned weaner price, Year 5 |
R54.51 per kg |
|
|
Current market, week ended 24 July 2026 |
R48.75 per kg |
Above the break-even but below the plan |
|
Headroom on price |
3.7% |
Thin, and deliberately so |
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Average breeding cows |
120 |
145 |
210 |
300 |
400 |
|
Cash gross margin per cow, R |
67 |
-303 |
595 |
1 963 |
4 780 |
|
Fixed cost base, R’000 |
612 |
778 |
1 072 |
1 410 |
1 800 |
|
Break-even herd, cows |
n/m |
n/m |
1 801 |
718 |
377 |
|
Position against break-even |
n/m |
n/m |
Below |
Below |
Above |
Price headroom of 3.7 per cent is thin, and it is thin deliberately: the plan prices below a market that is being held up by a disease outbreak. An investor should satisfy themselves that the operation can survive a return to pre-crisis weaner prices, because that is what successful disease control would produce.