Cattle Baron Master Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every herd, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. A Note on the Name
- 3. The Market and the FMD Crisis
- 4. Foot-and-Mouth Disease as a Business Risk
- 5. The Production System
- 6. Herd Performance
- 7. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 8. Grazing, Land and Water
- 9. Unit Economics
- 10. Route to Market
- 11. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 12. Funding
- 13. People, Security and Stock Theft
- 14. Compliance and Traceability
- 15. Financial Projections
- 16. Break-Even
- 17. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 18. Risk Management
- 19. Implementation Timeline
- 20. Returns
- 21. Key Performance Indicators
- 22. Key Assumptions
- 23. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 22.1 Herd and production
- 22.2 Price, cost and funding
22.1 Herd and production
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Breeding cows at year end |
120 |
450 |
Built by retention, not purchase |
|
Bulls |
5 |
18 |
Approximately one bull to 25 cows |
|
Calving percentage |
70.0% |
84.0% |
Bull fertility testing, condition scoring, controlled season |
|
Calf mortality to weaning |
8.5% |
5.0% |
Calving supervision within a defined ninety-day window |
|
Weaning percentage |
64.0% |
79.8% |
The product of the two above; one point is worth R52 766 |
|
Heifers retained |
48 |
88 |
310 across five years; the growth mechanism |
|
Weaners sold |
29 |
231 |
Sales lag the herd because heifers are retained |
|
Weaner weight |
218 kg |
242 kg |
Cow milk production and grazing quality |
|
Cull rate |
16.0% of the herd a year |
16.0% |
Age, condition, and any cow that skips a calf |
|
Large stock units |
172 |
597 |
Roughly 1.3 units per breeding cow with followers |
22.2 Price, cost and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Weaner price |
R44.00 per kg rising to R54.51 |
Opens roughly 10% below the market; escalates at 5.5% a year |
|
Cull cow price |
Approximately R16 000 a head |
A quarter of Year 5 cash revenue |
|
Grazing |
R1 450 per large stock unit in Year 1 |
Leased veld, escalating with inflation |
|
Licks and supplement |
Approximately R1 480 a cow at Year 5 |
The second-largest variable cost |
|
Veterinary and vaccination |
Approximately R913 a cow at Year 5 |
Includes FMD vaccination under the national programme |
|
Fixed cost base |
R612 000 rising to R1.80m |
Labour, owner remuneration, security, repairs, transport, administration, insurance |
|
Owner remuneration |
R216 000 rising to R432 000 |
A real cost, deducted before EBITDA |
|
Total capital deployed |
R11.20 million |
Infrastructure R8.11m, livestock R2.48m, working capital R1.21m |
|
Founder equity |
R2.20 million |
At inception |
|
Grant funding targeted |
R3.40 million |
Blended Finance Scheme, Years 1 and 3; competitive and not committed |
|
Loans and asset finance |
R13.07 million |
Livestock finance, Land Bank production and expansion facilities |
|
Corporate income tax |
27% of taxable profit |
Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation |