Cattle Baron Master Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every herd, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.

Key Assumptions

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  • 22.1 Herd and production
  • 22.2 Price, cost and funding

22.1 Herd and production

Assumption

Year 1

Year 5

Basis

Breeding cows at year end

120

450

Built by retention, not purchase

Bulls

5

18

Approximately one bull to 25 cows

Calving percentage

70.0%

84.0%

Bull fertility testing, condition scoring, controlled season

Calf mortality to weaning

8.5%

5.0%

Calving supervision within a defined ninety-day window

Weaning percentage

64.0%

79.8%

The product of the two above; one point is worth R52 766

Heifers retained

48

88

310 across five years; the growth mechanism

Weaners sold

29

231

Sales lag the herd because heifers are retained

Weaner weight

218 kg

242 kg

Cow milk production and grazing quality

Cull rate

16.0% of the herd a year

16.0%

Age, condition, and any cow that skips a calf

Large stock units

172

597

Roughly 1.3 units per breeding cow with followers

22.2 Price, cost and funding

Assumption

Value

Basis

Weaner price

R44.00 per kg rising to R54.51

Opens roughly 10% below the market; escalates at 5.5% a year

Cull cow price

Approximately R16 000 a head

A quarter of Year 5 cash revenue

Grazing

R1 450 per large stock unit in Year 1

Leased veld, escalating with inflation

Licks and supplement

Approximately R1 480 a cow at Year 5

The second-largest variable cost

Veterinary and vaccination

Approximately R913 a cow at Year 5

Includes FMD vaccination under the national programme

Fixed cost base

R612 000 rising to R1.80m

Labour, owner remuneration, security, repairs, transport, administration, insurance

Owner remuneration

R216 000 rising to R432 000

A real cost, deducted before EBITDA

Total capital deployed

R11.20 million

Infrastructure R8.11m, livestock R2.48m, working capital R1.21m

Founder equity

R2.20 million

At inception

Grant funding targeted

R3.40 million

Blended Finance Scheme, Years 1 and 3; competitive and not committed

Loans and asset finance

R13.07 million

Livestock finance, Land Bank production and expansion facilities

Corporate income tax

27% of taxable profit

Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation

Next section23. Conclusion