Cattle Baron Master Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across disease, market, financial, security and environmental risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. A Note on the Name
- 3. The Market and the FMD Crisis
- 4. Foot-and-Mouth Disease as a Business Risk
- 5. The Production System
- 6. Herd Performance
- 7. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 8. Grazing, Land and Water
- 9. Unit Economics
- 10. Route to Market
- 11. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 12. Funding
- 13. People, Security and Stock Theft
- 14. Compliance and Traceability
- 15. Financial Projections
- 16. Break-Even
- 17. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 18. Risk Management
- 19. Implementation Timeline
- 20. Returns
- 21. Key Performance Indicators
- 22. Key Assumptions
- 23. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Foot-and-mouth outbreak on the farm |
Medium |
Very High |
Buy almost no animals; quarantine every incoming animal 30 days; vaccinate under the national programme and record it; stock-proof boundary fencing; check the state veterinary position before every purchase. Movement control stops sales entirely, not just profit. |
Owner |
|
Weaner price normalisation |
High |
Very High |
The plan prices at R44.00 against a market of R48.75. A 10% fall is worth R305 000 against Year 5 cash EBITDA of R112 000. Weaning percentage is the only available defence. |
Owner |
|
Weaning percentage below plan |
Medium |
Very High |
Bull fertility testing before every season; cow condition scoring at mating; controlled 90-day season; calving supervision; cull cows that skip. Four points is worth R211 000. |
Owner |
|
Grazing outrun by the herd |
Medium |
High |
Independent written confirmation of capacity before each expansion; stocking below 85% of assessed capacity; camp rotation with rest periods. |
Owner |
|
Blended Finance grant not obtained |
High |
High |
R3.40m of the programme. Apply a full year ahead through more than one institution; hold the herd at its current size rather than over-borrow. Without it the founder return falls to minus 0.6%. |
Owner |
|
Drought |
High |
Very High |
Stocking below assessed capacity; standing grazing reserve and a fodder budget that can be doubled; sell weaners and culls first and breeding cows last. |
Owner |
|
Stock theft |
High |
High |
Registered brand; maintained boundary fencing; daily counts recorded; night kraaling where risk warrants; herding presence; community relationships; insurance on the breeding herd. |
Owner and herdsmen |
|
Cash exhaustion during the build |
High |
Very High |
Cash EBITDA negative until Year 5. Each stage separately funded; cash EBITDA reported alongside EBITDA; breeding cows never sold to cover a shortfall. |
Owner |
|
Input cost pressure |
Medium |
Medium |
Grazing 15% and supplement 20% above plan is worth R279 000 combined. Lease terms negotiated; supplement matched to condition rather than to habit. |
Owner |
|
Cull cow price below plan |
Medium |
Medium |
A quarter of Year 5 cash revenue. Managed by a culling policy on age and condition rather than opportunistic selling. |
Owner |
|
Records incomplete at a gate |
Low |
Very High |
Recorded on the day from the day the first cow arrives; cannot be reconstructed. Gate 1 and every funding application require them. |
Owner |
|
Trademark challenge on the name |
Low |
Medium |
Formal search and attorney opinion before any branding spend. A few thousand rand against a rebrand after investors are on the register. |
Owner |