Baobab Table Experiences Business Plan — Financial Plan & Projections

15.1 Basis of preparation

Sponsor headline revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly as briefed. Everything beneath EBITDA is independently re-derived: component depreciation from the capital-expenditure register, South African corporate tax at 27% with assessed-loss carry-forward, and working capital. The base case is funded entirely with the sponsor’s R75.5 million of equity (no debt), so there is no interest charge; a debt-capacity analysis for lenders is provided in Section 16. The three statements are integrated so the balance sheet ties to zero in every year, enforced by an automated assertion. All figures are nominal rand millions unless stated.

15.2 Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Corporate tax rate	27%	SA rate; turnover >R20m so no SBC relief
Working capital	4% of revenue	Cash dining offset by retail inventory & events receivables
Funding	R75.5m equity	As briefed; all-equity base case
Depreciation	Component approach	Building 25-yr; kitchen 8-yr; fit-out 10-yr; stage/AV 7-yr; FFE 8-yr; tech 4-yr
Cumulative capex	~R165m over 5 years	Flagship + Cape Town & Durban venues
Repo / prime	7.0% / 10.5%	SARB, mid-2026
Exit valuation	6×–10× EV/EBITDA	Experiential hospitality / branded comparables

Analyst flagRe-derived net profit versus the sponsor’s illustrative figures

Preserving revenue and EBITDA exactly, the fully-loaded model produces net profit of approximately R2.6m, R8.0m, R13.7m, R20.5m and R31.0m across Years 1–5, modestly below the sponsor’s illustrative R3.4m to R36.1m, and increasingly so in later years. The gap is depreciation: a genuine multi-venue rollout requires roughly R165m of cumulative capex, and depreciating it in full (rather than the lighter capex the illustrative figures imply) is the honest cost of building the group. It is disclosed rather than smoothed.

Figure 15. *Net profit after tax: re-derived vs sponsor illustrative.*

15.3 Projected profit & loss

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	48	74	108	149	205
EBITDA	8.6	16.1	26.8	39.5	56.8
Depreciation & amortisation	(5.0)	(5.2)	(8.0)	(11.4)	(14.3)
EBIT	3.6	10.9	18.8	28.1	42.5
Net interest (all-equity)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Profit before tax	3.6	10.9	18.8	28.1	42.5
Taxation (27%)	(1.0)	(3.0)	(5.1)	(7.6)	(11.5)
Net profit after tax	2.6	8.0	13.7	20.5	31.0
Net margin	5.5%	10.8%	12.7%	13.8%	15.1%

Figure 16. *EBITDA and margin trajectory.*

Figure 17. *Illustrative venue unit economics (per R100 of dining revenue).*

15.4 Projected cash flow statement

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA	8.6	16.1	26.8	39.5	56.8
Taxation paid	(1.0)	(3.0)	(5.1)	(7.6)	(11.5)
Working-capital movement	(1.9)	(1.0)	(1.4)	(1.6)	(2.2)
Operating cash flow	5.7	12.1	20.4	30.3	43.1
Capital expenditure	(56.0)	(0.8)	(32.5)	(37.7)	(37.7)
Equity drawn	75.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net movement in cash	25.2	11.3	(12.1)	(7.4)	5.4
Closing cash	25.2	36.5	24.4	17.0	22.3

Analyst flagLiquidity tightens as the rollout is self-funded

Operating cash flow is positive from Year 1, but the Cape Town and Durban venues consume most of it: closing cash falls from roughly R37m in Year 2 to about R17m in Year 4 before rebuilding. The R75.5m funds Phase 1 and a measured rollout, but a faster pace, a build overrun or a soft ramp would erode the buffer, which is why committed follow-on capital or a working-capital facility is recommended (Section 16).

Figure 18. *Operating cash flow, capex and closing cash.*

Figure 19. *Closing cash runway across the investment phase.*

15.5 Projected balance sheet

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Net property, plant & equipment	51.0	46.6	71.1	97.4	120.8
Net working capital	1.9	3.0	4.3	6.0	8.2
Cash & equivalents	25.2	36.5	24.4	17.0	22.3
Total assets	78.1	86.1	99.8	120.3	151.4
Share capital	75.5	75.5	75.5	75.5	75.5
Retained earnings	2.6	10.6	24.3	44.8	75.9
Total equity / funding	78.1	86.1	99.8	120.3	151.4

StrengthThe balance sheet ties to zero every year

Total assets equal total equity in every projection year (all-equity structure), enforced by an automated assertion (maximum difference: 0.0). The business carries no debt and holds a net-cash position throughout, so it is financially resilient even as it invests, the constraint is the quantum of cash available for expansion, not solvency.

Figure 20. *Balance-sheet build: asset composition.*

15.6 Key financial ratios

The ratio summary distils the plan’s trajectory: expanding EBITDA and net margins as the higher-margin mix matures, a consistently net-cash position, and a rising return on the equity invested as the business scales.

Ratio	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA margin	17.9%	21.8%	24.8%	26.5%	27.7%
Net margin	5.5%	10.8%	12.7%	13.8%	15.1%
Net cash (R m)	25.2	36.5	24.4	17.0	22.3
Return on equity	3.4%	9.3%	13.7%	17.0%	20.5%
Non-dining revenue share	29.0%	32.0%	37.0%	40.0%	41.0%