Baobab Table Experiences Business Plan — Returns, Scenarios & Sensitivity

Equity returns

On the base-case ramp, the business generates R56.8 million of EBITDA by Year 5. At experiential-hospitality and branded-concept exit multiples of 6×–10× EV/EBITDA, and given the net-cash balance sheet, the equity value at a Year-5 exit implies strong multiples on the R75.5 million invested. As with any early-stage scale-up of a novel concept, these returns are attractive but contingent on proving and delivering the ramp and on the exit multiple achieved; they are amplified by a modest equity base scaling into a substantial EBITDA.

Measure	6× exit	8× exit	10× exit
Year-5 EBITDA (R m)	56.8	56.8	56.8
Enterprise value (R m)	341	454	568
Add: net cash (R m)	(22.3)	(22.3)	(22.3)
Equity value (R m)	363	477	590
MOIC (×)	4.8×	6.3×	7.8×
Equity IRR	48.1%	58.5%	67.2%

Figure 22. *Equity value at Year-5 exit across EV/EBITDA multiples.*

Key findingRead the returns with discipline

The headline multiples are strong because a modest R75.5m equity base scales into a large EBITDA on an all-equity, net-cash structure. That only holds if the novel concept proves out and the multi-city ramp delivers. Investors should underwrite the downside case below and treat the base-case exit multiple as upside rather than entitlement. Realistic exit routes include a trade sale to a hospitality or leisure group, a private-equity recapitalisation, or continued owner-operated cash generation supported by the net-cash balance sheet.

Scenario analysis

Parameter	Downside	Base	Upside
Year-5 revenue (R m)	152	205	230
Year-5 EBITDA (R m)	39.8	56.8	61.9
Driver	Slower ramp / tourism shock; −3 pts	Sponsor plan	Faster franchise & retail; +2 pts
Additional capital	Likely required	None	None

Figure 23. *Year-5 revenue and EBITDA across scenarios.*

Sensitivity

Equity returns are most sensitive to the exit multiple and to the revenue ramp (a function of covers and average guest spend), then to EBITDA margin and rollout pace; tourism demand is a meaningful swing factor. The pattern reinforces the central message: value is created by proving and delivering the experiential concept, building a branded, multi-channel platform, and exiting a proven business a strategic buyer will pay a full multiple for, concept execution, not financial engineering.

Figure 25. *Revenue headroom above break-even.*

Exit strategy and value realisation

Baobab Table is being built as a branded, scalable platform with several realisation routes. The most probable is a trade sale to a hospitality, leisure or lifestyle group seeking a differentiated experiential brand with a proven concept, a multi-venue footprint and asset-light franchise and retail income, the kind of branded, cash-generative platform that attracts a full EV/EBITDA multiple. A private-equity recapitalisation is a natural alternative, providing partial liquidity to founders and early investors while funding the next phase of the rollout. Because the business is net-cash and profitable, continued owner-operation with dividend distributions is a credible default that avoids a forced sale. Retail-brand and franchise-network value may also be realised separately over time. Value is maximised by proving and systematising the flagship, demonstrating repeatability through the Cape Town and Durban venues, and establishing early franchise and retail traction before a formal process.