BluePeak Water Logistics Business Plan — Financial Plan & Projections

15.1 Basis of preparation

Sponsor headline revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly as briefed. Everything beneath EBITDA is independently re-derived: component depreciation from the capital-expenditure register (tanker trucks on a 7-year life, storage tanks 10-year, depot leasehold improvements 5-year, workshop equipment 8-year, mobile treatment units 8-year and GPS/IT systems 4-year), interest on vehicle asset finance at 13.0% (prime plus 250 basis points), 27% South African corporate tax with assessed-loss carry-forward, and working capital. Consistent with the invitation to structure the raise across funding rounds, and with the brief’s equity-and-debt basis, the plan is funded through a R16.5 million Series A (Year 1; R10.5 million equity and R6.0 million asset finance) and a R14 million Series B (Year 3). The three statements integrate and the balance sheet ties to zero every year, enforced by an automated assertion. All figures are nominal rand millions unless stated.

15.2 Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Corporate tax rate	27%	SA rate; assessed losses carried forward
Vehicle asset-finance rate	13.0%	Prime 10.5% + 250bps; secured on fleet
Working capital	12% of revenue	Municipal & industrial contract receivables
Funding	R18.5m equity + R12m finance	Series A R16.5m + Series B R14m
Depreciation	Component approach	Tankers 7-yr; tanks 10-yr; depot 5-yr; workshop/treatment 8-yr; IT 4-yr
Fleet	4 → 16 tankers	Utilisation 62% → 80%
Repo / prime	7.0% / 10.5%	SARB, mid-2026
Exit valuation	5×–8× EV/EBITDA	Logistics / utility-services comparables

Analyst flagRe-derived net profit versus the sponsor’s illustrative figures

Preserving revenue and EBITDA exactly, the fully-loaded model produces net profit of approximately −R0.2m, R1.4m, R2.6m, R5.7m and R10.0m across Years 1–5, running modestly below the sponsor’s illustrative R0.9m to R13.4m, with a small first-year loss. The difference is depreciation, financing and tax: the model applies full component depreciation on the tanker fleet, including the Series-B-funded expansion, plus asset-finance interest and full 27% corporate tax, all of which the sponsor’s simpler forecast treats more lightly. The operating performance (EBITDA) is preserved exactly; the gap is the honest, fully-loaded cost of the fleet, disclosed rather than smoothed.

Figure 14. *Net profit after tax: re-derived vs sponsor illustrative.*

15.3 Projected profit & loss

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	13	24	39	58	82
EBITDA	2.3	4.8	8.6	13.7	20.2
Depreciation	(1.76)	(2.29)	(3.65)	(4.71)	(5.45)
EBIT	0.54	2.52	4.95	8.99	14.75
Interest (asset finance)	(0.78)	(0.67)	(1.36)	(1.17)	(1.00)
Profit before tax	(0.24)	1.84	3.60	7.83	13.75
Taxation (27%)	0.00	(0.43)	(0.97)	(2.11)	(3.71)
Net profit after tax	(0.24)	1.41	2.63	5.71	10.04
Net margin	(1.8%)	5.9%	6.7%	9.9%	12.2%

Figure 15. *EBITDA and margin trajectory.*

Figure 16. *Illustrative operating economics (per R100 of revenue, at scale).*

15.4 Projected cash flow statement

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA	2.3	4.8	8.6	13.7	20.2
Taxation paid	0.00	(0.43)	(0.97)	(2.11)	(3.71)
Working-capital movement	(1.56)	(1.32)	(1.80)	(2.28)	(2.88)
Operating cash flow	0.74	3.05	5.83	9.31	13.61
Capital expenditure	(11.7)	(3.7)	(9.1)	(7.6)	(6.9)
Interest & debt service	(1.62)	(1.39)	(2.82)	(2.42)	(2.08)
Equity & asset finance raised	16.5	0.0	14.0	0.0	0.0
Closing cash	3.9	1.9	9.8	9.1	13.7

StrengthThe two-round structure keeps the business well-funded throughout

Operating cash flow is positive from Year 1, and the two rounds plus asset finance comfortably fund the phased fleet build: closing cash never falls below roughly R1.9m and builds toward R14m by Year 5. The Series B in Year 3 funds the fleet and regional expansion without straining the balance sheet, and debt-service cover is comfortable throughout. The business is cash-generative and lightly geared, the constraint is contract execution, not solvency.

Figure 17. *Operating cash flow, capex and closing cash.*

Figure 18. *Two-round funding: equity and vehicle asset finance.*

15.5 Projected balance sheet

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Net fleet & equipment	9.9	11.4	16.8	19.7	21.2
Net working capital	1.6	2.9	4.7	7.0	9.8
Cash & equivalents	3.9	1.9	9.8	9.1	13.7
Total assets	15.4	16.1	31.3	35.7	44.7
Asset finance (debt)	5.2	4.4	9.0	7.7	6.6
Share capital (Series A + B)	10.5	10.5	18.5	18.5	18.5
Retained earnings	(0.24)	1.17	3.80	9.51	19.55
Total equity	10.3	11.7	22.3	28.0	38.0
Total funding	15.4	16.1	31.3	35.7	44.7

StrengthThe balance sheet ties to zero every year

Total assets equal asset finance plus equity in every projection year, enforced by an automated assertion (maximum difference: 0.0). Share capital steps up from R10.5m to R18.5m as the Series B is drawn in Year 3, the asset finance is secured against the fleet it funds, and retained earnings compound as the business matures, a fully-integrated, self-consistent, lightly-geared three-statement model.

Figure 19. *Balance-sheet build: asset composition.*

15.7 Asset productivity and contract base

Two further lenses support the projections. Revenue per tanker rises as utilisation, contract density, larger articulated units and premium emergency work leverage the fixed fleet, the operating leverage that drives the margin expansion. And the active-contract base compounds as the sales engine and reputation build, converting each reputable win into recurring revenue and a reference for the next contract.

Figure 20. *Active contracts & recurring accounts.*

Metric	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Tankers in fleet	4	6	8	12	16
Active contracts	8	16	28	44	64
Fleet utilisation	62.0%	68.0%	72.0%	76.0%	80.0%
Revenue per tanker (R m)	3.25	4.00	4.88	4.83	5.12

15.6 Key financial ratios & debt cover

The ratio summary distils the plan’s trajectory: expanding EBITDA and net margins as the fleet scales and utilisation improves, comfortable debt-service cover throughout, and a lightly-geared, cash-generative balance sheet.

Ratio	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA margin	17.7%	20.0%	22.1%	23.6%	24.6%
Net margin	(1.8%)	5.9%	6.7%	9.9%	12.2%
DSCR (x)	1.42×	3.45×	3.05×	5.65×	9.69×
Net debt / EBITDA (x)	0.5×	0.5×	(0.1)×	(0.1)×	(0.3)×
Fleet utilisation	62.0%	68.0%	72.0%	76.0%	80.0%