Market sizing follows a top-down structure cross-checked against fleet economics. The total addressable market, South African municipal and private water-logistics spend, runs to several billion rand and is growing as infrastructure failure spreads. The serviceable addressable market, comprising Gauteng bulk, emergency and contracted water-logistics demand that BluePeak can realistically reach, is estimated at roughly R1.6 billion. The serviceable obtainable market, the company’s Year-5 revenue of R82 million, is a small share of that.
NoteDemand is not the binding constraint — contract wins and fleet are
Because Year-5 revenue is a small share of the serviceable market, the binding constraint on growth is not demand but the company’s own execution, winning contracts, scaling and utilising the fleet, and maintaining service and compliance. Market risk is therefore predominantly contract-acquisition, competition, fuel-cost and municipal-policy risk, addressed in Sections 9, 10 and 18.
Bottom-up cross-check — fleet and contracts
The revenue reconciles bottom-up against the fleet. The plan builds from 4 tankers and roughly 8 contracts in Year 1 toward 16 tankers and 60-plus active contracts by Year 5, with fleet utilisation rising from around 62% to 80% as contract density and dispatch efficiency improve. Revenue per tanker rises as utilisation, contract mix, larger articulated units and premium emergency work build, so the model compounds as the fleet and the contract base grow together.
