BluePeak Water Logistics Business Plan — Returns, Scenarios & Sensitivity

Equity returns

On the base-case ramp, the business generates R20.2 million of EBITDA by Year 5. At logistics and utility-services exit multiples of 5×–8× EV/EBITDA, and given the lightly-geared, near-net-cash balance sheet, the equity value at a Year-5 exit implies attractive multiples on the total equity invested across both rounds (R18.5 million). Because the Series A and Series B are deployed at different times, the internal rate of return reflects that timing. These figures are contingent on delivering the contract-and-utilisation ramp and on the exit multiple achieved, and should be read as an upside case rather than an expectation.

Measure	5× exit	6.5× exit	8× exit
Year-5 EBITDA (R m)	20.2	20.2	20.2
Enterprise value (R m)	101	131	162
Add/(less): net cash/(debt) (R m)	7	7	7
Equity value (R m)	108	138	169
MOIC on total equity (×)	5.8×	7.5×	9.1×
Blended equity IRR	68.8%	80.8%	90.9%

Figure 23. *Equity value at Year-5 exit across EV/EBITDA multiples.*

Key findingRead the returns with discipline

The headline multiples are attractive, amplified by a growing EBITDA base on a modest equity base that builds to a near-net-cash position, but they rest on delivering the contract-and-utilisation ramp, managing fuel and operating cost, navigating municipal-policy and payment risk, and achieving a full exit multiple. As a small business with a limited absolute profit base, valuation is sensitive to the exit multiple and to the growth trajectory a buyer will underwrite. Returns are computed on the total equity invested across both rounds. Investors should underwrite the downside case below and treat the upside multiple as optionality; realistic exit routes include a strategic acquisition by a larger logistics, utility or infrastructure group, or a further capital raise to accelerate regional expansion.

Scenario analysis

Parameter	Downside	Base	Upside
Year-5 revenue (R m)	62	82	92
Year-5 EBITDA (R m)	14.9	20.2	22.0
Driver	Slow contracts / fuel spike / insourcing	Sponsor plan	Fast private & regional expansion
Series B	May be delayed / smaller	As planned	On plan / larger

Figure 24. *Year-5 revenue and EBITDA across scenarios.*

Sensitivity

Equity returns are most sensitive to the exit multiple and to the contract-win and utilisation ramp, then to fuel and operating cost, the municipal-versus-private mix, EBITDA margin and fleet-finance cost. The pattern reinforces the central message: value is created by winning and retaining contracts, utilising the fleet efficiently, controlling fuel and operating cost, diversifying the customer base, and building a reputable, contracted, asset-backed platform that a strategic buyer will pay a full multiple for, execution and reliability, not financial engineering.

Figure 26. *Revenue headroom above break-even.*

Exit strategy and value realisation

BluePeak is being built as a reputable, contracted, asset-backed water-logistics platform with several realisation routes. The most probable is a strategic acquisition by a larger logistics, utility, infrastructure or facilities-services group seeking an established fleet, a contracted customer base, compliance credentials and a foothold in a structurally-growing market. A further capital raise could fund accelerated regional expansion while providing partial liquidity, and continued owner-operation with dividends is a robust default given the recurring, cash-generative model. Value is maximised by proving the contract engine, demonstrating recurring revenue, a diversified customer base and reliable utilisation, and establishing regional and mobile-treatment traction before a formal process.