Essence Premium Catering Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across contract, operational, financial and food safety risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Why Ekurhuleni
- 3. The Market and the Segment Trap
- 4. Contribution by Segment
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Winning and Keeping Contracts
- 7. Tendering Into the Public Sector
- 8. Unit Economics and Prime Cost
- 9. Working Capital
- 10. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 11. Funding
- 12. People and Production
- 13. Food Safety and Compliance
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Customer concentration — one large contract lost |
Medium |
Very High |
Break-even is 86.7% of revenue; a 15% volume loss removes R1.43m of EBITDA and takes cover to 0.41x. A 25% concentration limit per client as a board-level rule, reviewed at every renewal; any contract breaching it priced for the risk. |
Founder |
|
Contract price reduced on renewal |
High |
Very High |
5% below plan removes R1.59m — the largest single exposure. Retention practice that makes the incumbent hard to displace; monthly client reviews with feedback data; never the cheapest bid on a site that cannot be served at that price. |
Founder |
|
Food cost escalation on a fixed price |
High |
Very High |
4 points removes R1.27m, 60% of EBITDA. Annual escalation clause tied to published food inflation in every contract; costed menus to the gram; portion control at the serving line; weekly measurement by segment. |
Founder and head chef |
|
Food safety incident |
Low |
Very High |
One serious incident ends the contract and contaminates every reference. Temperature records from day one; externally audited HACCP-based system from Year 3; food handler certification tracked against expiry; delivery within the 30 to 45 minute radius. |
Production manager |
|
Working capital exhaustion |
High |
High |
Public payment at 68 days against weekly food and wages; the debtor book reaches R3.05m. Contract-backed facility advanced on certified invoices; signed meal count records daily; no mobilisation funded from another contract’s collections. |
Founder |
|
Labour cost above plan |
Medium |
High |
10% above plan removes R885 000 and takes cover to 0.91x. Sectoral determination compliance; shift utilisation; production planning against the meal forecast. |
Production manager |
|
Government work exceeds one third of meals |
Medium |
High |
R0.09 of contribution a meal. Capped as a Year 3 gate condition and monitored monthly; a caterer at two thirds government has volume and no margin, and cannot unwind it quickly. |
Founder |
|
Public tender disqualified on technicalities |
High |
Medium |
CoA from the correct municipality; food handler certificates in date at closing; vehicle certificates of fitness; nutritional compliance; VAT clarity on SBD 3.3; CSD and B-BBEE current. A funded bid function from Year 1. |
Bid and tender officer |
|
Key person dependency on the founder |
High |
High |
The Year 2 gate requires a production manager running the kitchen without the founder. Costed menus, recipes and temperature protocols documented rather than held in one head. |
Founder |
|
Distribution and energy cost escalation |
Medium |
Medium |
20% above plan removes R515 000. Route planning; full loads within the delivery radius; solar and inverter capacity funded from Year 1. |
Production manager |
|
Event volume below plan |
Medium |
Low |
20% below plan removes R140 000. Lumpy and seasonal by nature; the segment is a margin sweetener rather than a foundation. |
Founder |
|
Debt service cover breached |
Medium |
High |
1.33x in Year 5 clears the gate with little to spare and every downside scenario fails it. Facilities to carry deferral ability; no capacity step drawn where the preceding gate has been missed. |
Founder |