HelioForge Power Energy Systems Business Plan — Appendices

Appendix A — Capital deployment schedule

Category (R m)	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Manufacturing plant	99	54	27	0	0
Machinery & equipment	54	36	30	0	0
Battery assembly facility	0	20	16	9	0
Distribution infrastructure	14	12	9	0	0
Technology systems	5	3	2	0	0
Sustaining capex	0	11	25	29	30

Appendix B — Detailed P&L and cash flow

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	420	760	1,200	1,780	2,450
EBITDA	58	132	248	382	560
Depreciation	12	23	32	36	39
EBIT	46	109	216	346	521
Interest	9	22	26	20	8
Tax	10	23	51	88	139
NPAT	27	63	138	238	375
Operating cash flow	-15	42	113	198	327
Capex	172	137	108	38	30
Closing cash	179	168	118	119	171

Appendix B2 — Revenue by end-market segment (R m)

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Commercial & Industrial Solar	147	266	420	623	858
Mining Energy Projects	105	190	300	445	613
Agricultural Solar	63	114	180	267	368
Utility-Scale Projects	63	114	180	267	368
Residential Solar	42	76	120	178	245
Total revenue	420	760	1,200	1,780	2,450

Appendix C — Volume, capacity & network

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Module-equiv MW shipped	210	340	470	620	720
Nameplate capacity (MW)	350	350	550	750	750
Utilisation	60%	97%	85%	83%	96%
Blended revenue / MW (R m)	2.00	2.24	2.55	2.87	3.40
Module manufacturing revenue (R m)	109	198	312	463	637
EPC & turnkey revenue (R m)	143	258	408	605	833
Installer / partner network	120	260	420	600	800

Appendix D — Key assumptions register

Assumption	Value
Blended EBITDA margin (Y5)	~22.9% base; 14.0–28.7% tested
Exchange rate (importer)	R18.5/US$ base; R16.5–21.5 tested (weaker = adverse)
Capacity (Y5)	350 → 750 MW/yr; ~85–96% utilisation
Cost of debt / tax	11.5% / 27% with 80% loss cap
Working capital	~13% of revenue (net) + WC facility
Dividend policy	30% of NPAT, deferred to Year 3
Exit	6.5x EV/EBITDA on Year-5 EBITDA
Combined-stress IRR	~48% (rev –30%, 13% margin, 5.5x exit)

Appendix D2 — Return sensitivity summary

The table consolidates how the equity return moves across the key variables, and states the honest reading of each.

Variable	Range tested	Effect on equity IRR
Blended EBITDA margin (Y5)	14.0% – 28.7%	~66% – 91% — the dominant driver
Exchange rate (R/US$)	16.5 – 21.5	Adverse as rand weakens (net importer)
Exit multiple	5.5x – 6.5x+	Material on MOIC; base deliberately conservative
Combined stress	rev –30%, 13% margin, 5.5x	~48% — still well above hurdle
Distribution-only counterfactual	~8% margin, no mfg/EPC	~18.5% — sector attractive; integration adds the rest

Appendix E — Glossary

Term	Definition
Blended EBITDA margin	Group EBITDA as a share of total revenue across manufacturing, EPC, storage and distribution.
Value-add ladder	The uplift in revenue per MW as an imported cell becomes a module, an installed system, and a storage-integrated solution.
EPC	Engineering, procurement and construction — turnkey design, supply and installation of solar and storage systems.
BESS	Battery energy storage system — backup, hybrid, grid-stabilisation and microgrid storage.
Balance-of-system (BoS)	The inverters, mounting, wiring and monitoring around the modules themselves.
Local content / REIPPPP	Domestic-content rules under SA renewable procurement (REIPPPP) that favour local manufacturing.
CFADS / DSCR	Cash flow available for debt service; and CFADS divided by scheduled debt service.
MOIC	Multiple of invested capital — total distributions divided by equity invested.

Appendix F — Important notice

This document is strictly private and confidential. It has been prepared for the exclusive use of prospective financiers and does not constitute an offer of securities or investment advice. All projections are estimates based on stated assumptions and are subject to material risk, of which module-price / import-competition, currency, working-capital/liquidity and execution risk are the most significant.