Revenue is derived from the explicit clinic rollout and maturation; the EBITDA margin reaches the sponsor’s 25% target; and depreciation, interest, tax and net profit are independently derived. The distinctive feature, relative to a heavy-capital healthcare business, is that the network is profitable from Year 1: the light capital base means there is no deep J-curve trough, and net profit is positive throughout.
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
17 |
55 |
96 |
138 |
180 |
|
Operating expenses |
-13 |
-43 |
-73 |
-104 |
-135 |
|
EBITDA |
4 |
12 |
23 |
34 |
45 |
|
EBITDA margin |
21.0% |
22.0% |
23.5% |
24.5% |
25.0% |
|
Less: depreciation |
-2 |
-6 |
-9 |
-13 |
-17 |
|
EBIT |
1 |
7 |
13 |
21 |
28 |
|
Less: net interest |
-0 |
-1 |
-3 |
-3 |
-1 |
|
Profit before tax |
1 |
5 |
10 |
18 |
27 |
|
Less: taxation (27%) |
-0 |
-2 |
-3 |
-5 |
-7 |
|
Net profit after tax |
1 |
4 |
7 |
13 |
19 |
|
Net margin |
5.9% |
7.1% |
7.7% |
9.3% |
10.8% |
NoteA capital-light P&L — modest depreciation, profitable throughout
Because surgery and deliveries are performed in partner hospitals, LumaVida owns no theatres and relatively little heavy equipment: the depreciable base is clinic fit-out, ultrasound and consulting equipment, and the digital platform. Network depreciation is therefore modest, EBIT tracks close to EBITDA, and the business is profitable from Year 1. This is the structural advantage of the model, and the reason its returns on capital are so strong.
The rollout ramp underlies the trajectory
Revenue is built bottom-up from the clinic rollout: the flagship opens in Year 1, two clinics open in each of Years 2–5, and each ramps to about 82% of mature revenue in its first year and full maturity by year three. The result is revenue of R17 million in Year 1 building to R180 million by Year 5, meeting the sponsor’s target, and an EBITDA margin that climbs from 21% to the 25% target as the network matures and central costs are spread over rising volume.
Volumes underpin the revenue
The revenue build rests on clinical and membership volumes ramping toward the Year-5 targets of ~120,000 consultations and 10,000 wellness members a year. The membership target in particular is ambitious and central to the model, it is the recurring-revenue engine and a key acquisition tool, and its trajectory is one of the plan’s most important operating assumptions.
