Throughput below the traffic study

High — the binding risk on returns. A 15% shortfall takes the project return to 13.0%, below the 15.5% hurdle, and removes the Year 1 cash break-even headroom entirely.

Independent seven-day count split light and heavy, commissioned before the option is exercised; conservative 1.6% capture assumption; phased equity draw-down behind the approvals; opening working capital buffer of R1.4m.

Promoter

Licensing or rezoning delay

High — interest accrues with no revenue. Rezoning and NEMA authorisation take nine to twelve months each and are the critical path, not the DMPR licences.

Secure zoning and environmental authorisation before committing construction capital; experienced town planner and environmental assessment practitioner appointed at the outset; Gate 2 blocks land acquisition until both are granted.

Promoter

Construction cost overrun

Medium-high — a 15% overrun costs roughly six points of project return.

Fixed-price turnkey contract with retention; 10% contingency held outside the modelled capital; staged drawdown against certified progress.

Promoter

Regulated margin lags cost inflation

Medium-high — structural and outside management control. A 10% adverse movement takes the return to 15.4%, barely at the hurdle.

Grow the non-fuel gross profit share, which is the only part of the business with pricing freedom; industry body membership for representation on RAS reviews.

Operator

Wet stock loss and fuel theft

Medium — directly erodes a thin margin. A persistent 0.5% variance costs R649 440 a year at landed cost.

Automatic tank gauging with leak detection; daily reconciliation of dips to meters to sales; 0.3% variance investigation trigger; CCTV and pump-level controls.

Site manager

Fuel price spike

Medium — raises working capital and card fees, not margin. A 40% increase requires roughly R1.6m of additional working capital overnight.

Committed working capital facility sized to a 40% pump price increase; daily banking; fuel stock held to six days rather than filling to ullage.

Operator

Shop gross profit disappoints

Medium — the profit engine. A 20% shortfall costs 5.6 points of project return.

Quick-service tenant secured on a long lease before financial close as a condition precedent; convenience retail manager appointed before opening, reporting on shop profit rather than shop sales.

Operator

Armed robbery and cash-in-transit risk

Medium — safety and insurance cost.

Drop safes with a limited forecourt float; daily contracted cash-in-transit collection; guarding; SASRIA cover.

Site manager

Environmental contamination

Medium — remediation liability attaches to the land, which the investor owns freehold.

Double-skinned tanks; leak detection; groundwater monitoring; environmental liability insurance carried from commissioning.

Operator

Loss of supply or branding agreement

Medium — funders underwrote the supply security.

Ten-year supply agreement with renewal terms negotiated at inception; volume and branding obligations monitored monthly.

Promoter

Labour dispute or wage escalation

Medium — salaries are 35.7% of Year 1 gross profit.

MIBCO-compliant contracts; productivity-linked rostering; wage inflation modelled at 6.5%, above the national minimum wage escalation.

Operator

New competing site in the catchment

Medium — a mature market defends share aggressively and price is regulated.

Loyalty programme, quick-service anchor and car wash create switching reasons beyond price; no competing forecourt within 2.5 km in the primary direction of travel at inception.

Operator

Electric vehicle transition

Low near-term, rising after ten years. Penetration is well under 1% of the parc.

Forecourt space reserved for DC fast charging; asset life and debt term aligned to a ten-year horizon.

Promoter