Throughput

340 000 litres a month

480 000 litres a month

Roughly double the RAS benchmark station of 233 000

Annual volume

4.08 million litres

5.76 million litres

Petrol and diesel split

52% / 48%

52% / 48%

Corridor site with light-commercial and taxi traffic

Petrol retail margin

R3.15 a litre

R3.83 a litre

Regulated under RAS; escalated 5% a year

Diesel realised margin

R2.45 a litre

R2.98 a litre

Unregulated at retail; discounted to fleet customers

Blended margin

R2.814 a litre

R3.420 a litre

Weighted at the product split

Average pump price

R25.12 a litre

R30.54 a litre

Escalated 5% a year; affects working capital and card fees, not margin

Fuel gross margin

11.2%

11.2%

Fixed in cents, so the percentage does not move with the pump price

Shop revenue

R16.2 million

R29.8 million

Growth of 18%, 12%, 8% and 6% plus 5% price inflation

Shop gross margin

27%

27%

Forecourt convenience norm

Car wash, services and QSR

R4.74 million

R7.95 million

Blended margin of 55.1%; the QSR rental is 100% margin

Operating costs, Year 1

R13.22 million

71.3% of Year 1 gross profit; 40 staff on a 24/7 roster

Salaries and wages

R6.62 million escalating at 6.5%

Above the R30.23 national minimum wage; MIBCO conditions apply

Card and merchant fees

R1.30 million escalating at 8.0%

Charged on turnover, so they rise with the pump price

Utilities

R0.65 million escalating at 9.0%

Net of 60 kWp of solar generation

Total project cost

R44.5 million

Freehold: land R8.5m, forecourt and buildings R27.9m, professional and licensing R2.7m, inventory and working capital R4.0m

Depreciation

R2 133 333 a year

15-year straight line on R32.0m, excluding land and working capital

Equity

R14.5 million

32.6% of funding; ordinary shares, no preferential return

Senior bank debt

R24.0 million at 12.0%

10-year term, 12-month capital moratorium then amortising

Oil company facility

R6.0 million at 10.5%

5-year amortising, secured on equipment

Fuel stock days

6 days

Roughly R320 000 of working capital for every additional day at Year 5 prices

Corporate tax

27%

Year 1 assessed loss carried forward and set off in Year 2

Distributions

50% of profit after tax from Year 3

Only where debt service cover exceeds 1.50 times

Discount rates

15.5% project, 18.0% equity

Project and equity hurdles respectively

Exit multiple

4.0 times Year 5 EBITDA

Within the 3.5 to 4.5 times range at which forecourts transact

Passing traffic

28 000 vehicles a day

Independent seven-day count split light and heavy

Everything below it changes; this is the licensing requirement and the investment decision

Capture rate

1.6% at maturity

Observed throughput at comparable corridor sites and at the competing forecourt

A 15% throughput miss takes the project return to 13.0%, below the hurdle

Shop conversion

34% of fuel customers

Comparable forecourt data with a quick-service anchor

Each point is worth R694 000 of shop revenue a year

Average shop basket

R118

Regional convenience benchmarks

A 20% shop gross profit miss costs 5.6 points of project return

Petrol and diesel split

52% / 48%

Traffic composition from the count

A heavier diesel weighting reduces the blended margin below R2.814

Land cost

R8.5 million

A valuation and a conditional purchase agreement

Capital overrun of 15% costs roughly six points of return

Base construction cost

R27.9 million

Fixed-price turnkey tender

As above; hold a 10% contingency outside the modelled capital

Quick-service rental

R1.29 million a year

A signed lease with a national covenant

It is 100% margin and the largest driver of shop footfall