Mr Bakery Master Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across market, operational, financial and compliance risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. A Note on the Name
- 3. The Market and Why Scale Is the Enemy
- 4. The Product Strategy
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Route to Market
- 7. Unit Economics and Prime Cost
- 8. Returns: The Wholesale Bakery Tax
- 9. Energy
- 10. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 11. Funding
- 12. People and Production
- 13. Food Safety and Compliance
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Prime cost fails to fall below 66% |
Medium |
Very High |
Contract buying on flour; scales at every station; version-controlled recipe book; yield logged per batch; prime cost calculated weekly from ingredients issued, wages paid and revenue banked. At 67% the Year 5 EBITDA is roughly half the plan. |
Founder and head baker |
|
Volume shortfall against plan |
Medium |
Very High |
15% below plan costs R1 157 000 because the cost base is largely fixed. Routes added only on density; gates refuse capacity expansion until the previous step trades. |
Founder |
|
Returns creep above plan |
High |
High |
Two points costs R355 000 and takes cover from 1.52x to 1.05x. Order book per shop; drops adjusted weekly; reported by route and shop; salesman measured on net sales after returns. |
Route salesmen |
|
Ingredient price shock |
Medium |
High |
Four points on ingredients costs R686 000. Forward contracting on flour, roughly half the ingredient line; documented fallback supplier; ability to shift mix. |
Founder |
|
Food safety incident |
Low |
Very High |
No trading without a Certificate of Acceptability. Live compliance file reviewed quarterly; batch coding from day one; returned product destroyed and recorded, never re-delivered. |
Founder and head baker |
|
Debt service cover breached |
Medium |
High |
0.94x in Year 4 is the tightest point. Facilities to carry deferral ability; Year 4 and Year 5 equipment finance not drawn if the preceding prime cost gate is missed. |
Founder |
|
Customer credit loss |
Medium |
Medium |
New customers on cash terms; credit limit per shop against observed offtake; collection on delivery where terms allow; no delivery to a shop over its limit. |
Route salesmen |
|
Load shedding interrupts the bake |
High |
Medium |
Solar and inverter capacity from Year 1 at R195 000, expanded in Year 5. A proofed batch that cools is a batch lost, not a delayed one. |
Founder |
|
Energy cost above plan |
High |
Medium |
20% above plan costs R213 000. Bake scheduling to load; gas as a partial alternative; energy per unit tracked to surface equipment faults early. |
Founder |
|
Key person dependency on the founder |
High |
High |
The Year 2 gate requires a production supervisor able to run a shift without him. Recipe book documented so the bake does not live in one person’s head. |
Founder |
|
Retail outlet underperforms |
Medium |
Medium |
Gate 4 requires profitable trading within six months. R830 000 of capital deferrable by a year if the wholesale base is not ready to carry it. |
Founder |
|
Trademark unregistrable or challenged |
Medium |
Low |
Search and attorney opinion before any branding spend. Vehicle branding, signage and packaging committed only after clearance. |
Founder |