SA Premier Poultry Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Scale and Business Model
- 3. Registration, Food Safety and Compliance
- 4. Market and Customers
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. Risk Analysis
- 12. Implementation Roadmap
- 13. Key Performance Indicators
- 14. Key Assumptions
- 15. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Throughput, Yield and Cost Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likely |
Impact |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Avian influenza outbreak |
Medium |
Severe |
Removes live supply, raises prices and can close the plant under movement controls. The 2023 H5N1 and H7N6 outbreaks were the worst in South African history and 7.5 million birds were culled. No commercial hedge exists. Mitigated by supplier geographic spread, business interruption cover and balance sheet strength |
|
Spread compression between live and product prices |
High |
Severe |
Live birds are 63.2% of revenue per bird. Contribution reaches zero at a live price of R34.17/kg against a planned R24.50 — headroom of 40%. Mitigated by contract pricing formulas, not eliminated |
|
Registration delayed or refused |
Low |
Severe |
The plant cannot lawfully operate and has little alternative use. Mitigated by securing registration in principle before construction; there is no fallback |
|
Throughput below plan |
High |
High |
Break-even is 5591 birds a day against Year 1 of 4 800. Mitigated by contract slaughter filling the line and by offtake agreements before commissioning |
|
Working capital exceeds facility |
High |
High |
Working capital reaches R38 316 553 against a R24 000 000 facility. Mitigated by retaining earnings and by extending the facility as debtors grow |
|
Effluent non-compliance |
Medium |
High |
High-strength effluent; municipal rejection stops production. Mitigated by on-site treatment and by confirming capacity before the site is committed |
|
Live supply concentration |
Medium |
High |
Loss of a major grower disrupts throughput. Mitigated by a cap of 20% of supply per grower and a contracted grower base of 10 to 15 |
|
Imported product undercuts prices |
High |
Medium |
Imports set the commodity price floor. Mitigated by fresh and food-service positioning, which imports cannot serve |
|
Cold chain or refrigeration failure |
Medium |
High |
Stock loss and food safety exposure. Mitigated by standby generation, maintenance contract and insurance |
|
Dressed yield below plan |
Medium |
Medium |
Two points of yield is worth R3071016 of annual EBITDA at single-shift capacity. Mitigated by line discipline and daily yield reporting |
|
Second shift started before demand exists |
Medium |
Medium |
Adds R4 650 000 of fixed cost against volume that may not arrive. Mitigated by the Year 3 gate |
|
Electricity cost and supply |
High |
Medium |
Chilling and freezing are continuous loads. Standby generation is budgeted and utilities carry R1 320 000 of annual base load |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Commissioning |
Dressed yield below 71.0% |
Do not accept the line. Withhold retention and require the supplier to remedy |
|
Month 6 |
Below 3 600 birds a day |
Increase contract slaughter to fill the line. Defer all discretionary spend |
|
Month 12 |
Contribution below R13.22 a bird |
Renegotiate grower pricing formulas and review product mix before the next season |
|
End Year 2 |
EBITDA below break-even |
Engage lenders before the moratorium expires, not after |
|
Year 3 |
Incremental volume for the second shift not contracted |
Do not start the second shift. Defer the capital and re-plan |
|
Any time |
Live price above R30.76/kg sustained |
Shift mix toward contract slaughter, which carries no live price exposure |