South Africa Cattle Premium Company Business Plan — Financial Plan & Projections

15.1 Basis of preparation

Sponsor headline revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly as briefed. Everything beneath EBITDA is independently re-derived: component depreciation and amortisation from the capital-expenditure register, South African corporate tax at 27% with assessed-loss carry-forward, and working capital. The base case is funded entirely with the sponsor’s R220 million of equity (no debt), so there is no interest charge; a debt-capacity analysis for lenders is provided in Section 16. Capital expenditure is phased across the rollout, with the central kitchen, distribution centre, offices, technology and brand largely upfront and restaurant capex tracking the openings. The three statements are integrated so the balance sheet ties to zero every year, enforced by an automated assertion. All figures are nominal rand millions unless stated.

15.2 Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Corporate tax rate	27%	SA rate; turnover exceeds SBC thresholds
Working capital	6% of revenue	Cash sales offset by inventory & supplier credit
Funding	R220m equity	As briefed; all-equity base case
Depreciation	Component approach	Restaurants 10-yr; kitchen 10-yr; distribution 12-yr; equipment 8-yr; technology 4-yr; brand 5-yr
Cumulative capex	~R192m over 5 years	Restaurants, central kitchen, distribution & systems
Repo / prime	7.0% / 10.5%	SARB, mid-2026
Exit valuation	8×–12× EV/EBITDA	Branded restaurant / hospitality comparables

Analyst flagRe-derived net profit versus the sponsor’s illustrative figures

Preserving revenue and EBITDA exactly, the fully-loaded model produces net profit of approximately R4m, R22m, R52m, R96m and R161m across Years 1–5, very close to the sponsor’s illustrative R6m to R160m, and modestly below only in Year 1. The small Year-1 gap is depreciation: the central kitchen, distribution centre, offices, technology and brand are built largely upfront, so the early overhead is carried before the network fills out. From Year 2 the re-derivation tracks the sponsor closely. This is disclosed rather than smoothed.

Figure 13. *Net profit after tax: re-derived vs sponsor illustrative.*

15.3 Projected profit & loss

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	105	245	465	725	1060
EBITDA	16	43	88	152	242
Depreciation & amortisation	(9.9)	(13.2)	(16.9)	(20.3)	(21.4)
EBIT	6.1	29.8	71.1	131.7	220.6
Net interest (all-equity)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Profit before tax	6.1	29.8	71.1	131.7	220.6
Taxation (27%)	(1.6)	(8.0)	(19.2)	(35.6)	(59.5)
Net profit after tax	4.5	21.8	51.9	96.1	161.0
Net margin	4.2%	8.9%	11.2%	13.3%	15.2%

Figure 14. *EBITDA and margin trajectory.*

Figure 15. *Illustrative restaurant unit economics (per R100 of revenue).*

15.4 Projected cash flow statement

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA	16	43	88	152	242
Taxation paid	(1.6)	(8.0)	(19.2)	(35.6)	(59.5)
Working-capital movement	(6.3)	(8.4)	(13.2)	(15.6)	(20.1)
Operating cash flow	8.1	26.6	55.6	100.8	162.4
Capital expenditure	(84.0)	(26.0)	(31.5)	(28.5)	(22.0)
Equity drawn	220.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Net movement in cash	144.1	0.6	24.1	72.3	140.4
Closing cash	144.1	144.6	168.7	241.1	381.4

StrengthThe rollout is well-funded — a substantial cash buffer throughout

Operating cash flow is positive from Year 1 and the R220 million raise comfortably funds the phased rollout: closing cash never falls below roughly R144 million and builds strongly to over R380 million by Year 5. The plan is well-capitalised, indeed the raise is generous relative to the modelled capex, giving management flexibility to accelerate, to weather a slower ramp, or to consider a modest debt component to reduce equity dilution (Section 16).

Figure 16. *Operating cash flow, capex and closing cash.*

Figure 17. *Closing cash across the investment phase.*

15.5 Projected balance sheet

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Net PP&E & intangibles	74.1	86.9	101.5	109.7	110.2
Net working capital	6.3	14.7	27.9	43.5	63.6
Cash & equivalents	144	145	169	241	381
Total assets	224	246	298	394	555
Share capital	220	220	220	220	220
Retained earnings	4.5	26.2	78.1	174.2	335.2
Total equity / funding	224	246	298	394	555

StrengthThe balance sheet ties to zero every year

Total assets equal total equity in every projection year (all-equity structure), enforced by an automated assertion (maximum difference: 0.0). The business carries no debt and holds a strong net-cash position throughout, so it is financially resilient even as it invests heavily in the rollout, the constraint is execution, not solvency.

Figure 18. *Balance-sheet build: asset composition.*

15.7 Restaurant economics and productivity

The plan reconciles against restaurant-level productivity: as sites mature and the brand builds, revenue per company restaurant and average spend per cover rise, lifting restaurant-level margins and the returns on each unit of capital deployed.

Metric	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Company restaurants	3	5	7	10	12
Revenue per company restaurant (R m)	29.3	35.0	42.9	43.0	48.6
Average spend per cover (ZAR)	380	395	410	425	440
Franchised restaurants	0	3	8	15	28
Total restaurants	3	8	15	25	40

Figure 19. *Company-restaurant productivity and average spend.*

15.6 Key financial ratios

The ratio summary distils the plan’s trajectory: expanding EBITDA and net margins as the higher-margin franchise, catering and retail mix matures and central-kitchen operating leverage arrives, a consistently strong net-cash position, and a rising return on the equity invested as the network scales.

Ratio	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA margin	15.2%	17.6%	18.9%	21.0%	22.8%
Net margin	4.2%	8.9%	11.2%	13.3%	15.2%
Net cash (R m)	144	145	169	241	381
Return on equity	2.0%	8.8%	17.4%	24.4%	29.0%
Franchise/retail/delivery share	8.0%	18.0%	25.0%	31.0%	35.0%