South Africa Cattle Premium Company Business Plan — Returns, Scenarios & Sensitivity

Equity returns

On the base-case ramp, the business generates R242 million of EBITDA by Year 5. At branded-restaurant and hospitality exit multiples of 8×–12× EV/EBITDA, and given the strong net-cash balance sheet, the equity value at a Year-5 exit implies attractive multiples on the R220 million invested. These figures are contingent on delivering an aggressive multi-unit and franchise rollout and on the exit multiple achieved, and should be read as an upside case rather than an expectation.

Measure	8× exit	10× exit	12× exit
Year-5 EBITDA (R m)	242	242	242
Enterprise value (R m)	1936	2420	2904
Add: net cash (R m)	381	381	381
Equity value (R m)	2317	2801	3285
MOIC (×)	10.5×	12.7×	14.9×
Equity IRR	80.2%	88.9%	96.6%

Figure 21. *Equity value at Year-5 exit across EV/EBITDA multiples.*

Key findingRead the returns with discipline

The headline multiples are attractive because a substantial EBITDA base builds on an all-equity, net-cash structure, but they rest on delivering the full three-to-forty rollout and franchise ramp, and on achieving a full exit multiple. Two cautions matter. First, the rollout is aggressive and the industry is competitive and discretionary-spending-exposed, so a slower ramp is a realistic downside. Second, the strong net-cash build inflates the equity value at exit; investors should focus on the operating trajectory and underwrite the downside case below rather than anchoring on the headline multiple.

Scenario analysis

Parameter	Downside	Base	Upside
Year-5 revenue (R m)	795	1060	1166
Year-5 EBITDA (R m)	174.2	242.0	261.4
Driver	Slow rollout / weak consumer; −3 pts	Sponsor plan	Fast franchise & tourism; +2 pts
Additional capital	Buffer absorbs	None	None

Figure 22. *Year-5 revenue and EBITDA across scenarios.*

Sensitivity

Equity returns are most sensitive to the exit multiple and to the rollout pace and covers (a function of site quality, average spend and openings), then to franchise traction, beef and food cost, and EBITDA margin. The pattern reinforces the central message: value is created by proving the restaurant economics, building a durable brand, scaling the higher-margin franchise, catering and retail businesses, controlling food and labour cost, and exiting a proven, branded platform that a strategic buyer will pay a full multiple for, brand, product and execution, not financial engineering.

Figure 24. *Revenue headroom above break-even.*

Exit strategy and value realisation

SACPC is being built as a branded, franchisable hospitality platform with several realisation routes, as the sponsor envisages. The most probable is a trade sale to a larger restaurant or hospitality group seeking a premium, differentiated steakhouse brand with a proven concept, a multi-format footprint and asset-light franchise and retail income. A JSE listing within eight to ten years is a credible alternative given the scale the business reaches. A private-equity recapitalisation could provide partial liquidity to founders and early investors while funding continued expansion. Because the business is strongly net-cash and profitable, continued owner-operation with dividend distributions is a robust default. Value is maximised by proving the restaurant economics, demonstrating repeatability across cities and formats, and establishing franchise and retail traction before a formal process.