Two Seasons Garlic Business Plan — Projected Income Statement
Five-season income statement: revenue to R52.8m, gross margin reaching 58.8% and EBITDA of R18.0m by FY2031.
Projected Income Statement
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- Overview & contents
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company and Business Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Services
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis
- 8. Customer Analysis
- 9. Market and Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model
- 13. Management and Organisation
- 14. Strategic Plan
- 15. SWOT Analysis and Strategic Implications
- 16. Risk Analysis
- 17. ESG and Sustainability
- 18. Implementation Roadmap
- 19. Financial Model and Revenue Build
- 20. Projected Income Statement
- 21. Projected Balance Sheet
- 22. Projected Cash Flow
- 23. Capital Expenditure and Working Capital
- 24. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 25. Break-Even Analysis
- 26. Investment Case and Returns
- 27. Debt Serviceability
- 28. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 29. Key Performance Indicators and Management Dashboard
- 30. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Assumption Register
- B. Appendix B: Conditions Precedent to the Seed Subscription
- C. Appendix C: Glossary
Gross margin rises from break-even to 58% as purchased seed falls away and mix improves; overheads grow at half the rate of revenue, lifting the EBITDA margin to 34%.
|
R million |
FY2027 |
FY2028 |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
3.05 |
10.43 |
21.96 |
36.61 |
52.80 |
|
Cost of sales |
(3.14) |
(5.20) |
(9.88) |
(15.61) |
(21.78) |
|
Gross profit |
(0.10) |
5.23 |
12.09 |
21.00 |
31.03 |
|
Gross margin |
-3.2% |
50.1% |
55.0% |
57.4% |
58.8% |
|
Farm management and agronomy |
(1.42) |
(1.98) |
(2.60) |
(3.18) |
(3.68) |
|
Packhouse and cold-chain overhead |
(0.64) |
(1.12) |
(1.68) |
(2.16) |
(2.54) |
|
Sales, marketing and retail programmes |
(0.52) |
(0.86) |
(1.28) |
(1.66) |
(1.98) |
|
Compliance, certification and food safety |
(0.42) |
(0.62) |
(0.84) |
(1.02) |
(1.18) |
|
Administration, finance and governance |
(1.18) |
(1.50) |
(1.86) |
(2.16) |
(2.42) |
|
Insurance (crop, asset, liability) |
(0.30) |
(0.50) |
(0.76) |
(1.00) |
(1.22) |
|
Total operating expenses |
(4.48) |
(6.58) |
(9.02) |
(11.18) |
(13.02) |
|
EBITDA |
(4.58) |
(1.35) |
3.06 |
9.82 |
18.01 |
|
EBITDA margin |
-150.3% |
-13.0% |
14.0% |
26.8% |
34.1% |
|
Depreciation |
(0.32) |
(1.11) |
(2.25) |
(3.29) |
(3.90) |
|
EBIT |
(4.90) |
(2.46) |
0.82 |
6.53 |
14.10 |
|
Finance costs |
(1.61) |
(1.61) |
(1.45) |
(1.13) |
(0.81) |
|
Profit before tax |
(6.51) |
(4.07) |
(0.63) |
5.40 |
13.30 |
|
Taxation (27%, losses carried forward) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
(2.02) |
|
Net profit after tax |
(6.51) |
(4.07) |
(0.63) |
5.40 |
11.28 |
|
Net margin |
-213.7% |
-39.0% |
-2.9% |
14.8% |
21.4% |
Table 38. Projected income statement (R million).
Revenue per planted hectare reaches R574 by FY2031 against a field cost of R139,000. That ratio is what makes garlic attractive relative to most field crops, and it is also why the crop attracts entrants whenever prices are strong. The FY2027 gross margin is negative only because the first season’s planting stock is purchased at R62/kg and because 39% of the harvest is retained; from FY2028 the company is self-supplying and the margin normalises.