Two Seasons Garlic Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

What moves FY2031 EBITDA: price, yield, saleable share and tariff change, with downside and upside scenarios.

Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

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28.1 Single-variable sensitivities on FY2031 EBITDA
28.2 The trade-remedy scenarios
28.3 Scenario analysis

Price and yield are the variables that carry the value; the downside case with expansion halted at 70 hectares requires about R9m of additional equity and returns the seed investor’s capital only partially.

28.1 Single-variable sensitivities on FY2031 EBITDA

Figure 20. Effect on FY2031 EBITDA of a 10% adverse movement in each principal variable.

Figure 21. FY2031 EBITDA against movements in realised price across all channels.

FY2031 EBITDA (R m)	Yield –20%	Yield –10%	Yield base	Yield +10%	Yield +20%
Price –20%	(0.8)	3.3	7.5	11.6	15.7
Price –10%	3.2	8.0	12.7	17.5	22.3
Price base	7.2	12.6	18.0	23.4	28.8
Price +10%	11.2	17.3	23.3	29.3	35.4
Price +20%	15.2	21.9	28.6	35.2	41.9

Table 52. Two-way sensitivity of FY2031 EBITDA to price and yield.

28.2 The trade-remedy scenarios

Figure 22. FY2031 EBITDA under scenarios for the anti-dumping duty.

The duty premium is modelled at R19.25/kg on a landed Chinese price of about R30/kg before duty. Full lapse with complete pass-through to local prices is a 30% fall in realised price across channels; half erosion is 15%. EBITDA falls to R10.0m and R1.9m respectively. The company remains EBITDA-positive at a 34% price fall, which means a partial erosion is survivable and a full convergence to import parity is not comfortably so.

28.3 Scenario analysis

	Downside	Base	Upside
Assumptions	Price –10%; yield –7%; costs +5%; expansion halted at 70 ha; FY2031 capex cut to R1.5m	As modelled	Price +5%; yield +6%; costs –2%
FY2031 revenue (R m)	34.3	52.8	59.4
FY2031 EBITDA (R m)	5.8	18.0	24.8
FY2031 net profit (R m)	1.6	11.7	14.8
Minimum cash before further funding (R m)	(9.2)	4.0	10.9
Additional funding required (R m)	10.7	nil	nil
FY2031 closing cash (R m)	(8.8)	9.6	21.2
Minimum DSCR FY2030–31 (x)	0.58	1.99	2.94
Equity value at 6.5x (R m)	23.1	121.0	176.7
Seed MOIC (before dilution from rescue equity)	0.6x	3.2x	4.7x
Seed IRR	-9%	26%	36%

Table 53. Scenario analysis. Downside minimum cash occurs in FY2030 and would be met by a rescue round or by holding area at 48 ha from FY2029.

Figure 23. EBITDA across downside, base and upside cases.

Variable	Change	FY2031 EBITDA (R m)	FY2031 net profit (R m)	FY2031 DSCR (x)	Seed MOIC at 6.5x	Equity value (R m)
Base	—	18.0	11.3	3.81	3.2x	120.7
Price	–10%	12.7	7.4	2.35	2.3x	86.4
Yield	–10%	12.6	7.3	2.31	2.3x	85.6
Input costs	+10%	15.8	9.7	3.21	2.8x	106.5
Overheads	+10%	16.7	10.3	3.45	3.0x	112.2
Capex	+10%	18.0	10.9	3.81	3.1x	116.6
Interest rate	+200 bp	18.0	11.2	3.71	3.2x	120.2
Exit multiple	5.0x / 8.0x	—	—	—	2.5x / 3.9x	93.7 / 147.7

Table 54. Sensitivity of key outputs to individual variables (FY2031).

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