Revenue

Planted area

12 → 92 ha

Capped by market absorption

Revenue

Yield

9.5 → 11.8 t/ha

Improves with own selected seed; high sensitivity

Revenue

Seed rate

1.6 t/ha

Determines retention

Revenue

Cull rate

8% of saleable

Sold at R9/kg

Pricing

Retail

R58 → R63/kg

Depends on trade remedy; highest sensitivity

Pricing

Wholesale

R41 → R44/kg

Market-agent channel

Pricing

Export

R49 → R53/kg less R7 freight

SADC by road

Pricing

Peeled

R112 → R121/kg at 68% recovery

Food service

Pricing

Annual price inflation

~2%

Below CPI; conservative

COGS

Field cost

R124,000 → R139,000/ha

Excludes seed; fuel and fertiliser exposure

COGS

Purchased seed

R62/kg, season one only

Self-supplied thereafter

COGS

Curing

R2.1/kg harvested

Energy and labour

COGS

Packing

R5.2/kg retail and export; R1.2 wholesale

Packaging and labour

COGS

Peeling

R15.4/kg input

Labour, MAP packaging, cold chain

Payroll

Executives

R1.2–1.6m each

Market; in overheads

OPEX

Overheads

R4.5m → R13.0m

Six lines; ~50% of revenue growth rate

CAPEX

Total

R40.7m over 5 years

Lives 6–15 years; half-year convention

Working capital

Receivable / inventory / payable days

30–35 / 60–80 / 30

Stored crop drives inventory

Tax

Corporate rate

27%

Assessed losses carried forward

Inflation

Cost inflation

~3.5% p.a.

Above headline CPI

FX

Exposure

None modelled

Rand-denominated sales

Financing

Term facility

R14.0m; 11.5%; 7 yrs; 24-month grace

Repo 7.00% + 4.5%

Financing

Equity

R9.0m / R15.0m / R11.0m

Post-money R20m / R48m / R76m

Depreciation

Method

Straight-line by class

From capex schedule

Exit

Multiple

6.5x EBITDA (5.0–8.0x)

Market range; DCF cross-check at 14–16.5%

Market

Apparent consumption

5,200 t growing 3% p.a.

Trade and production statistics

Trade remedy

Anti-dumping duty

R19.25/kg on Chinese fresh garlic

Maintained after sunset review; verify

Leases

Commitments

~R1.1m p.a. at 92 ha; 10 years + options

Included in field cost