Financial Model and Revenue Build

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• Overview & contents
• 1. Executive Summary
• 2. Investment Thesis
• 3. Company and Business Overview
• 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
• 5. Products and Services
• 6. Industry Analysis
• 7. Market Analysis
• 8. Customer Analysis
• 9. Market and Competitive Landscape
• 10. Business Model
• 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
• 12. Operating Model
• 13. Management and Organisation
• 14. Strategic Plan
• 15. SWOT Analysis and Strategic Implications
• 16. Risk Analysis
• 17. ESG and Sustainability
• 18. Implementation Roadmap
• 19. Financial Model and Revenue Build
• 20. Projected Income Statement
• 21. Projected Balance Sheet
• 22. Projected Cash Flow
• 23. Capital Expenditure and Working Capital
• 24. Funding Requirement and Structure
• 25. Break-Even Analysis
• 26. Investment Case and Returns
• 27. Debt Serviceability
• 28. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
• 29. Key Performance Indicators and Management Dashboard
• 30. Conclusion
• A. Appendix A: Assumption Register
• B. Appendix B: Conditions Precedent to the Seed Subscription
• C. Appendix C: Glossary

Revenue is built from hectares, yield, seed retention, cull rate, channel mix and channel price, not from growth percentages, and every statement reconciles to that build.

19.1 Basis of preparation

The model is an integrated five-year projection on a July–June financial year, with FY2027 phased monthly on a crop-calendar basis. Field costs are incurred against each block’s planting window, harvest and curing costs against its harvest window, and revenue across the marketing season that follows. Planted area is set year by year and constrained by seed retained from the previous harvest. All figures are in rand; no foreign-currency exposure is modelled because domestic and SADC sales are rand-denominated. Depreciation is calculated from the capex schedule by asset class; interest from the debt schedule; tax at 27% with assessed losses carried forward; and working capital from receivable, inventory and payable days.

19.2 Revenue build

Table 35. Operating drivers of the revenue build.

Table 36. Revenue by channel (R million).

19.3 Cost build

Table 37. Cost of sales build (R million).

Cost of sales per saleable kilogram falls from about R45 in FY2027 to roughly R24 from FY2028 onward and then holds flat. The FY2027 figure is inflated by purchased planting stock and by a small first crop carrying the fixed element of field cost; once the seed bank is self-sustaining, the structure settles at field production of roughly R14/kg, with curing, packing, peeling and export logistics making up the balance. Against a blended realised price that climbs from R45/kg to R58/kg, this is the mechanism behind the gross-margin expansion shown in the next section: unit cost stays flat while unit price rises with channel mix.