Kyalami Surface Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

What moves FY32 EBITDA: billable utilisation, average job value, installer cost and film price, with scenarios.

Section 28 of 31

Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

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Overview & contents

The plan survives any single adverse variable. It does not survive several at once.

Scenario outcomes

Table 40. Three-scenario comparison

Scenario assumptions are set out in Section 19. Outcomes are presented as modelled.

Metric	Base	Downside	Stress
FY32 revenue	R42.0m	R34.2m	R13.3m
FY32 EBITDA	R8.6m	R0.4m	(R7.7m)
FY32 EBITDA margin	20.5%	1.1%	-58.2%
Peak billable utilisation	76%	68%	53%
Cumulative net profit over the plan	R6.9m	(R17.8m)	(R37.0m)
Minimum cash balance	R1.16m	(R7.2m)	(R27.6m)
Month committed funding is exhausted	Not exhausted	Month 25	Month 18
Additional capital required	Nil	R7.2m	R27.6m
Investor IRR	35.2%	Negative — equity impaired	Negative — total loss

Figure 1. The downside case reaches barely break-even EBITDA; the stress case never reaches it at all

No smoothing has been applied to either adverse case.

Figure 2. Committed facilities cover the base case and neither adverse case

Negative balances represent an unfunded shortfall, not an available facility.

What the adverse cases actually mean

In the downside case the Company remains a functioning business with R34m of revenue, but it earns approximately 1% EBITDA margins, never covers its cost of capital, exhausts its funding in month 24 and requires a further R7.2m simply to continue. Equity is impaired well before that point. An investor would face a decision between funding a business that does not earn a return and writing off the investment.

In the stress case — no tranche 2, no second studio, 53% utilisation — the Company exhausts committed funding in month 17 and would be wound down. Recovery would be limited to inventory, equipment and any value in the accreditation and brand.

Management presents these outcomes without qualification because they are what the model produces and because the structure of the transaction — particularly the tranche 2 gate — was designed specifically in response to them.

Single-variable sensitivities

Table 41. Sensitivity of FY32 EBITDA and investor IRR to key variables

Each row moves one assumption only, holding all others at base case.

Variable	FY32 EBITDA	Investor IRR	Minimum cash
Peak billable utilisation
58%	R2.12m	-22.7%	(R2.2m)
64%	R4.29m	7.2%	R0.45m
70%	R6.45m	24.0%	R0.45m
78%	R9.34m	38.3%	R1.26m
84%	R11.29m	46.1%	R1.52m
Price realisation
-10%	R4.85m	11.3%	R0.37m
-5%	R6.74m	25.3%	R0.45m
Base	R8.62m	35.2%	R1.16m
+5%	R10.50m	43.3%	R1.58m
ZAR depreciation p.a.
3% p.a.	R8.62m	35.2%	R1.16m
8% p.a.	R6.57m	25.3%	R0.95m
14% p.a.	R3.66m	4.8%	R0.45m
20% p.a.	R0.17m	Negative	(R1.9m)
Installer wage escalation
CPI+2	R8.74m	35.7%	R1.17m
CPI+4	R8.25m	33.5%	R1.14m
CPI+7	R7.45m	29.8%	R1.09m
CPI+10	R6.57m	25.4%	R1.01m
Rework and warranty rate
1.0%	R9.04m	37.1%	R1.26m
2.0%	R8.62m	35.2%	R1.16m
4.5%	R7.57m	29.9%	R0.77m
7.0%	R6.52m	23.9%	R0.45m