Kyalami Surface Business Plan — Financial Plan: Assumptions
Every utilisation, pricing, cost and funding assumption behind the model, and where the sensitivities concentrate.
Section 20 of 31
Financial Plan: Assumptions
Jump to section
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company and Business Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Services
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis
- 8. Customer Analysis
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model
- 13. Management and Organisation
- 14. Strategic Plan
- 15. SWOT Analysis
- 16. Risk Analysis
- 17. ESG and Sustainability
- 18. Implementation Roadmap
- 19. Financial Plan: Assumptions
- 20. Projected Income Statement
- 21. Projected Balance Sheet
- 22. Projected Cash Flow
- 23. Capital Expenditure and Working Capital
- 24. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 25. Break-even Analysis
- 26. Investment Case and Returns
- 27. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 28. Key Performance Indicators and Management Dashboard
- 29. Conclusion
- 30. Appendices
One monthly model drives every statement in this document. These are its inputs.
The financial model runs monthly over sixty months from 1 March 2027. Annual figures are aggregated from the monthly engine. The income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, debt schedule, capital expenditure schedule and working capital schedule are fully integrated, and the balance sheet reconciles to nil in every period under every scenario presented.
Table 27. Macroeconomic and financing assumptions
|
Assumption |
Base case |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Consumer price inflation |
4.5% |
SARB transition toward a 3% target; July 2026 headline 4.3% |
|
List price escalation |
6.0% |
CPI plus 1.5pp, reflecting brand and capacity pricing power |
|
Installer wage escalation |
7.0% |
CPI plus 2.5pp, reflecting scarcity of certified labour |
|
Rental escalation |
7.0% |
Standard industrial lease escalation |
|
Electricity escalation |
11.0% |
Eskom tariff trajectory |
|
ZAR/USD spot at model start |
R16.02 |
Market rate, August 2026 |
|
ZAR depreciation |
3.0% p.a. |
Forward-implied |
|
Prime lending rate |
10.50% |
SARB repo 7.00% plus standard margin |
|
Term loan margin |
Prime + 3.00% |
60 months, six-month capital holiday |
|
Asset finance margin |
Prime + 2.25% |
60 months, secured on equipment |
|
Revolving facility margin |
Prime + 2.50% |
R2.5m limit |
|
Corporate income tax |
27.0% |
South African statutory rate |
|
Assessed loss utilisation cap |
80% |
Section 20 of the Income Tax Act |
|
Weighted average cost of capital |
18.2% |
21.5% cost of equity, 13.5% pre-tax cost of debt, 72% equity weighting |
Table 28. Operating assumptions
|
Assumption |
Base case |
Downside |
Stress |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Peak billable utilisation |
76% |
68% |
53% |
|
Months to reach peak utilisation |
16 |
22 |
28 |
|
Price realisation against list |
100% |
97% |
91.5% |
|
List price escalation |
6.0% |
4.5% |
2.5% |
|
ZAR depreciation |
3.0% |
7.0% |
15.0% |
|
Installer wage escalation |
7.0% |
8.5% |
11.5% |
|
Rework and warranty provision |
2.0% |
3.5% |
6.0% |
|
Tranche 2 released |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
Second studio built |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Table 29. Working capital assumptions
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Debtor days — retail |
2 days |
Card settlement on collection |
|
Debtor days — trade |
45 days |
Franchise dealer group standard terms |
|
Inventory days |
72 days |
Eight to ten week ocean lead time plus safety stock |
|
Creditor days |
30 days |
Blend of local terms and letters of credit on imports |
|
Customer deposits |
22% of one month’s revenue |
Deposit taken at booking confirmation |
|
Import VAT recovery lag |
45 days |
Standard SARS refund cycle on import VAT |
|
Imported share of materials |
86% |
Balance is locally sourced consumables |