Aurora Grid Renewables – Business Plan
Investment-grade business plan for Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd — an R48.5-billion capital programme (2026–2036) to build a utility-scale renewable energy, battery storage and energy-trading platform across South Africa and four neighbouring SADC countries, combining solar and wind generation, battery energy storage and energy trading, scaling to 9.1 GW of generation and storage and R42.8 billion of Year-10 revenue with roughly 18 TWh of annual generation, funded by a stack of R28.5bn equity/quasi-equity and R20.0bn debt (including a R5.0bn green bond), delivering an equity IRR of about 32% at a conservative 8× EBITDA exit while avoiding around 22 million tonnes of CO2 a year.
Confidential Information Memorandum & Funding Proposal
Aurora Grid Renewables
A utility-scale renewable energy, battery storage and energy-trading platform for Southern Africa — utility-scale solar and wind generation, battery energy storage and energy trading across five countries, scaling to 9.1 GW of generation and storage by Year 10 — structured as an R48.5-billion capital programme (2026–2036) for infrastructure and pension funds, climate-finance mandates, DFIs and green-bond investors.
Southern Africa faces a deep, persistent power deficit and a decisive energy transition, and demand for clean, firm, tradeable power is scaling across the region — the market spans South Africa and four neighbouring SADC countries, each with under-developed generation and growing corporate and utility offtake appetite. Aurora Grid Renewables pursues this as a utility-scale platform combining solar and wind generation, battery energy storage and energy trading, scaling to 9.1 GW of generation and storage by Year 10 and roughly 18 TWh of annual generation. An R48.5-billion capital programme through 2036 — a funding stack of R28.5 billion of equity and quasi-equity and R20.0 billion of debt (including a R5.0 billion green bond) — scales the platform to R42.8 billion of Year-10 revenue, avoids around 22 million tonnes of CO₂ a year and supports roughly 8,000 direct jobs, delivering an equity IRR of about 32% at a ~6.7× multiple. As the plan notes, the exit is struck at a conservative 8× EBITDA against the sponsor’s 10×, so the investment does not depend on an aggressive multiple, and debt-service cover strengthens from a thin ramp toward comfortable cover as the portfolio stabilises.
Plan Contents
This investor-grade business plan is organised into the sections below. Each section is a dedicated page — select any to explore the full detail.
- 1Executive Summary
- 2Company Overview
- 3Industry & Market Analysis
- 4Business Model & Revenue Streams
- 5Competitive Analysis
- 6Development Programme
- 7Operations & Management
- 8Financial Plan
- 9Funding Structure & Implementation Roadmap
- 10Risk Analysis
- 11ESG & Development Impact
- 12Exit Strategy & Investor Returns
- 13Conclusion
- 14Appendices
Important Notice & Disclaimer
This comprehensive business plan (the “Plan”) has been prepared by
Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd (“Aurora Grid” or the
“Company”) to provide prospective investors and lenders with information
regarding its proposed vertically-integrated renewable energy, battery
storage and energy-trading platform across South Africa and the Southern
African region. It is furnished on a strictly confidential basis to a
limited number of sophisticated institutional recipients and may not be
reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the Company’s
prior written consent.
This Plan does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of
an offer to purchase securities in any jurisdiction, nor financial
advice as contemplated in the Financial Advisory and Intermediary
Services Act, 37 of 2002. Prospective investors should conduct their own
independent due diligence and obtain independent legal, tax, technical,
grid and financial advice. Aurora Grid is a development-stage platform;
while its strategy is modelled on the integrated develop-own-operate
approach demonstrated by established operators such as Scatec — whose
Kenhardt solar-plus-storage cluster and BESIPPPP battery awards are
referenced as market context — it is an independent venture and no
representation is made that it is affiliated with, endorsed by, or will
replicate the results of Scatec or any other operator.
The projections in this Plan are forward-looking statements resting
on assumptions about grid-connection availability, tariffs, PPA and
wheeling volumes, capital costs, construction timelines, exchange rates
and interest rates — all inherently uncertain. Renewable energy in South
Africa faces specific, well-documented constraints: grid-connection
capacity is a binding limit on new build, and the energy-trading and
wheeling regulatory framework is still being finalised. Where this Plan
departs materially from the sponsor’s headline case — most importantly
in independently re-deriving net profit below EBITDA (which, after full
depreciation and interest, is lower than the sponsor’s figures), in
observing that the blended EBITDA margin plateaus near 43–46% because
the trading and grid-services divisions are high-revenue, low-margin
activities, and in valuing the exit at a conservative 8x EBITDA
alongside the sponsor’s 10x — these differences are disclosed
deliberately and are central to the investment decision.
Figures are in South African Rand (ZAR) unless stated; “m” and “bn”
denote millions and billions, “GW”/”MW” gigawatts/megawatts,
“GWh”/”MWh”/”TWh” gigawatt-, megawatt- and terawatt-hours. Certain
totals may not cast exactly due to rounding. The sponsor’s stated
Year-10 balance sheet (R75bn property, plant & equipment; R92bn
total assets) is not fully reconcilable with the R48.5bn capital
programme; this Plan models the fully-costed programme and presents an
independently-derived balance sheet that ties in every year, as
explained in Section 8. Industry statistics are drawn from public
sources including the DMRE/DEE, NERSA, NTCSA/Eskom, the IPP Office,
SAPVIA, operator disclosures (Scatec) and market commentary, and are
believed reliable but not independently verified. The independently
re-derived three-statement model ties in every projection year.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd.