Aurora Grid Renewables Business Plan › Section 13 › Conclusion

Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings is designed as a next-generation
African energy infrastructure platform, modelled on the proven
integrated develop-finance-construct-own-operate-recycle approach and
extended with battery storage, energy trading, wheeling and
environmental commodities. With a planned portfolio exceeding 7 GW of
renewable generation and 1.8 GW of storage, it is positioned to become
one of the most valuable privately-owned energy infrastructure companies
in Africa over the next decade. The demand case is compelling and
well-evidenced: South Africa’s structural electricity deficit, the
retirement of coal, the corporate-decarbonisation wave, the R315bn
addressable market, and the decisively-inflected economics of battery
storage.

This Plan preserves the sponsor’s revenue, EBITDA and capital
programme exactly, and reaches four candid conclusions from an
independent re-derivation. Net profit, fully loaded with depreciation
and interest, is lower than the sponsor states — about R11.0bn in Year
10 against R12.9bn — and the stated Year-10 balance sheet does not fully
reconcile with a R48.5bn programme, so investors should anchor on the
re-derived, internally-consistent statements. The blended EBITDA margin
realistically plateaus near 43–46% because trading and grid services are
high-revenue, lower-margin activities — the correct signature of an
integrated platform, and a prompt to value it sum-of-the-parts. Returns
are nonetheless strong: even at a conservative 8x exit — a deliberate
discount for the trading mix and country risk — the equity IRR is about
32% at a ~6.7x multiple on the full equity committed, rising to ~35% at
the sponsor’s 10x, so the case does not depend on an aggressive
multiple. And the binding constraint is grid-connection capacity,
alongside the still-forming trading and wheeling framework — both made
central to the Plan.

For infrastructure, pension and sovereign investors, Aurora Grid
offers diversified, storage-heavy exposure to Southern Africa’s energy
transition with contracted cash flows, ESG alignment and a credible path
to a projected enterprise value of R149–186 billion by Year 10. For DFIs
and green-bond investors, it advances decarbonisation, energy security
and development at scale. For lenders, the moderate platform gearing,
strong stabilised cover and standard non-recourse project structures are
attractive, with ramp and trading-regulation risk addressable through
reserves, contracted-revenue anchoring and the storage-firmed,
dispatchable design. The diligence that matters concentrates on grid
access, delivery of the generation and storage build, and execution of
the capital-recycling model — which the Plan makes central and discloses
in full, so they can be underwritten deliberately. The Company invites
engagement on the milestone-staged, green-labelled funding framework set
out in Sections 8 and 9.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd.