Aurora Grid Renewables — Appendices
Supporting appendices - the full 10-year three-statement model, the assumptions register, the downside scenario, the key financial ratios, the sources and the glossary and abbreviations underpinning the Aurora Grid business plan and financial model.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Appendices
Supporting appendices – the full 10-year three-statement model, the assumptions register, the downside scenario, the key financial ratios, the sources and the glossary and abbreviations underpinning the Aurora Grid business plan and financial model.
Appendix A — Full 10-Year Three-Statement Model
Income statement (R m)
| R m | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 850 | 2,600 | 6,200 | 11,000 | 16,500 | 23,400 | 30,200 | 36,500 | 42,800 |
| EBITDA | 0 | 300 | 1,050 | 2,800 | 5,000 | 7,600 | 10,500 | 13,200 | 15,800 | 18,600 |
| Depreciation | – | (42) | (127) | (303) | (537) | (806) | (1143) | (1475) | (1783) | (2091) |
| Interest | – | (404) | (953) | (1478) | (1928) | (2250) | (2106) | (1963) | (1714) | (1465) |
| PBT | 0 | (146) | (30) | 1,019 | 2,535 | 4,544 | 7,251 | 9,762 | 12,303 | 15,044 |
| Tax | – | – | – | (228) | (684) | (1227) | (1958) | (2636) | (3322) | (4062) |
| NPAT (re-derived) | 0 | (146) | (30) | 791 | 1,850 | 3,317 | 5,293 | 7,126 | 8,981 | 10,982 |
Cash flow (R m)
| R m | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 0 | 232 | 910 | 2,284 | 3,932 | 5,933 | 7,990 | 10,020 | 11,974 | 14,034 |
| Capex | (3800) | (6200) | (7400) | (6800) | (6300) | (5200) | (4600) | (3400) | (3000) | (1800) |
| Debt draws | – | 3,600 | 4,900 | 4,700 | 4,000 | 2,800 | – | – | – | – |
| Equity injections | 4,200 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 4,200 | 3,400 | 2,400 | 1,500 | 900 | 600 | 300 |
| Dividends | – | – | – | – | – | – | (4764) | (6414) | (8083) | (9884) |
| Closing cash | 400 | 3,228 | 6,086 | 8,992 | 12,095 | 14,528 | 11,299 | 8,193 | 5,720 | 4,655 |
Balance sheet (R m)
| R m | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE (net) | 0 | 872 | 2,626 | 6,192 | 10,814 | 15,919 | 22,191 | 28,024 | 33,012 | 37,693 |
| CWIP | 3,800 | 9,086 | 14,606 | 17,536 | 18,678 | 17,966 | 15,151 | 11,242 | 7,471 | 2,500 |
| Cash | 400 | 3,228 | 6,086 | 8,992 | 12,095 | 14,528 | 11,299 | 8,193 | 5,720 | 4,655 |
| Total assets | 4,200 | 13,255 | 23,525 | 33,216 | 42,467 | 49,734 | 50,513 | 49,875 | 49,124 | 48,272 |
| Equity | 4,200 | 9,655 | 15,025 | 20,016 | 25,267 | 30,984 | 33,013 | 34,625 | 36,124 | 37,522 |
| Debt | 0 | 3,600 | 8,500 | 13,200 | 17,200 | 18,750 | 17,500 | 15,250 | 13,000 | 10,750 |
| Check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Appendix B — Assumptions Register
Assumptions marked ◆ are sponsor anchors preserved exactly; all
others are analyst-derived.
| # | Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Revenue path ◆ | R0 → R42,800m (Y1–Y10) | Sponsor |
| 2 | EBITDA ◆ | R300m → R18,600m | Sponsor |
| 3 | Capital programme ◆ | R48,500m across 7 categories | Sponsor |
| 4 | Funding stack ◆ | R28,500m equity + R20,000m debt | Sponsor |
| 5 | Project schedule ◆ | 7.3 GW gen + 1.8 GW storage; 5 phases | Sponsor |
| 6 | Depreciation | ~22-yr blended (solar/wind 25, BESS 12–15) | Analyst (asset-class lives) |
| 7 | Project-finance rate | 11.5% ZAR | Analyst; SA renewable debt |
| 8 | Green-bond rate | 10.5% ZAR | Analyst; ESG pricing benefit |
| 9 | Corporate tax | 27% + s20 loss carry-forward | Income Tax Act |
| 10 | Working capital | 8% of revenue | Blended; trading receivables |
| 11 | RCF | R2,500m facility, 12% | Analyst; ramp liquidity |
| 12 | Dividend policy | Cash-sweep above R3,500m from Y7 | Analyst |
| 13 | Exit multiple (base) | 8x EV/EBITDA | Analyst; trading-mix & SA discount |
| 14 | Exit multiple (sponsor) | 10x EV/EBITDA | Sponsor |
| 15 | Contracted revenue | 85% (75% PPA + 10% capacity) | Sponsor |
Appendix C — Downside Scenario
The downside combines a grid-driven generation delay with sustained
curtailment — the binding sector constraint. Revenue is reduced 25%
against base throughout, compressing EBITDA through operating
leverage.
| R m | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (−25%) | 4,650 | 8,250 | 12,375 | 17,550 | 22,650 | 32,100 |
| EBITDA | 2,380 | 4,250 | 6,460 | 8,925 | 11,220 | 15,810 |
| Debt service | (1,478) | (1,928) | (3,500) | (3,356) | (4,213) | (3,715) |
| DSCR (x) | 1.61 | 2.20 | 1.85 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 4.26 |
In the downside, DSCR compresses but the contracted
generation-and-storage core continues to service debt through most of
the horizon, because 85% of revenue is contracted and resilient even
under curtailment and trading constraints. This is the structural
benefit of anchoring the platform in contracted generation and storage
rather than merchant trading: the stress case is uncomfortable but
survivable, and equity value is deferred rather than destroyed. It is
the case against which lenders should size the debt-service reserve,
contracted-revenue covenants and the equity cushion.
Appendix D — Key Financial Ratios
The table summarises the principal credit and return ratios derived
from the three-statement model, for lender and investor reference.
| Metric | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin (%) | 40 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 43 | 44 |
| Net margin (%) | -1 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
| DSCR (x) | 0.96 | 1.55 | 2.04 | 1.70 | 2.38 | 2.38 | 3.02 | 3.78 |
| Interest cover (x) | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 12.7 |
| Debt / EBITDA (x) | 8.1 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Debt / (Debt+Equity) % | 36 | 40 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 31 | 26 | 22 |
| Return on equity (%) | -0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 29 |
Appendix E — Sources
- Scatec disclosures — Kenhardt solar-plus-storage (225 MW/1,140
MWh, 20-yr Eskom PPA, RMIPPPP); Mogobe & Haru/Leander BESIPPPP
awards (103–123 MW, 15-yr NTCSA agreements, ~90% non-recourse debt);
integrated develop-own-operate-recycle model - SAPVIA (Jan 2026) — BESIPPPP window-2 ~35% price reduction;
utility BESS ~USD 125/kWh (late 2025), ~USD 65/MWh LCOS;
ancillary-services market; Mulilo Oasis (257 MW/1,028 MWh) - Energy-Storage.News / DMRE — BESIPPPP window-3 (May 2025, 616 MW,
Mulilo/Scatec/EDF/AMEA); NTCSA grid-balancing role - IPP Office / DMRE — REIPPPP procurement history; installed
renewable capacity ~18.2 GW (2025); IRP renewable/storage
build-out - NTCSA / Eskom / GreenCape — grid-capacity constraints;
Independent Transmission Projects programme; corporate-PPA and wheeling
growth - Reuters — Africa Data Centres / DPA solar PPAs; data-centre
renewable demand - Sponsor brief — Aurora Grid revenue/EBITDA/NPAT, R48.5bn capital
& funding stack, project schedule, exit assumptions (independently
re-derived below EBITDA herein)
Appendix F — Glossary & Abbreviations
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Ancillary services | Grid-balancing services (frequency, reserves) sold to the system operator |
| BESS | Battery Energy Storage System |
| BESIPPPP | Battery Energy Storage IPP Procurement Programme |
| Capacity factor | Actual output as a percentage of maximum possible output |
| Capital recycling | Refinancing stabilised assets to release equity for new development |
| COD | Commercial Operation Date |
| Corporate PPA | Power Purchase Agreement between a generator and a private offtaker |
| Curtailment | Grid-instructed reduction of generation output |
| DFI | Development Finance Institution |
| DSCR | Debt-Service Cover Ratio |
| Hybrid | Co-located solar (or wind) plus battery storage |
| IPP | Independent Power Producer |
| LCOS | Levelised Cost of Storage |
| Non-recourse debt | Project debt secured only on project cash flows and assets |
| NTCSA | National Transmission Company of South Africa |
| PPA | Power Purchase Agreement |
| REC | Renewable Energy Certificate |
| REIPPPP | Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme |
| RMIPPPP | Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement Programme |
| SADC | Southern African Development Community |
| Wheeling | Transporting power across the grid from generator to offtaker |
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd.