Aurora Grid Renewables — Exit Strategy & Investor Returns
The exit routes, the exit economics and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the investment horizon.
Section 12 · Business Plan
Exit Strategy & Investor Returns
The exit routes, the exit economics and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the investment horizon.
12.1 Exit routes
- Infrastructure-fund sale (primary route). A
diversified, contracted, cash-generative multi-gigawatt platform is a
prime target for infrastructure and pension funds seeking long-dated,
inflation-linked returns — the deepest buyer pool for clean-energy
infrastructure. - Strategic acquisition. Sale to a global utility,
IPP or energy-major building African scale, for whom the integrated
generation-storage-trading platform and 1.8 GW of storage are
strategically valuable. - Capital recycling / recapitalisation. The
ongoing refinancing of stabilised assets releases equity value
throughout the hold, and a portfolio-level recapitalisation ahead of a
full exit is a natural step given the model. - IPO / listing (long-dated option). At full scale
with an operating track record, a public listing offers exit
optionality, subject to market conditions.
12.2 Exit economics
Two exit cases frame the return. The sponsor applies
a 10x EV/EBITDA infrastructure multiple to Year-10 EBITDA of R18.6bn —
an enterprise value of R186bn and, after net debt, equity value of about
R180bn — producing a 31–35% IRR and 8.1x equity multiple. This Plan’s
base case applies a conservative 8x, reflecting both a South African
country-risk discount and the reality that the platform’s trading- and
services-weighted earnings warrant a lower multiple than pure contracted
generation: an enterprise value near R149bn and equity value near
R143bn, for an equity IRR of about 31.6% at a 6.7x multiple. The return
is strong even on the conservative multiple — the 10x case is
upside.
| Exit metric | Conservative (8x) | Sponsor (10x) |
|---|---|---|
| Year-10 EBITDA (R m) | 18,600 | 18,600 |
| EV/EBITDA multiple | 8.0x | 10.0x |
| Enterprise value (R m) | 148,800 | 186,000 |
| Less net debt (R m) | 6,095 | 6,095 |
| Equity value (R m) | 142,705 | 179,905 |
| Equity IRR | 31.6% | 35.0% |
| Equity multiple | 6.7x | 8.2x |
A note on valuation method. A single blended
multiple understates the platform’s value. Sophisticated buyers will
value it sum-of-the-parts: a premium infrastructure multiple on the
contracted generation and storage earnings (the large majority of
EBITDA), and a lower trading-business multiple on the trading and
grid-services margin. Because generation and storage dominate EBITDA,
the blended outcome sits comfortably in the 8–10x range modelled — but
the divisional framing is how the Company will present value at exit,
and it supports the upper end of the range for the asset-backed,
storage-heavy core.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd.