Aurora Grid Renewables — Development Programme
The phased development programme across utility-scale solar, wind and battery storage, the technology mix and the construction and build-out plan underpinning Aurora Grid.
Section 6 · Business Plan
Development Programme
The phased development programme across utility-scale solar, wind and battery storage, the technology mix and the construction and build-out plan underpinning Aurora Grid.
Aurora Grid delivers its portfolio through five phased projects,
sequenced to establish first generation and the trading platform early,
then scale solar, wind, hybrid and standalone storage, and finally
expand regionally. Each project is a discrete, financeable undertaking
with its own grid, offtake and SPV, financed with non-recourse project
debt in the manner standard for South African renewable assets.
| Phase | Project | Technology | Capacity | CAPEX | COD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Project Solaris | Solar PV (Northern Cape) | 500 MW | R8.2 bn | Year 3 |
| 2 | Project Zephyr | Wind (Eastern Cape) | 750 MW | R11.5 bn | Year 4 |
| 3 | Project Titan | Solar + battery hybrid | 900 MW + 500 MW | R12.8 bn | Year 5 |
| 4 | Project Atlas | Battery storage | 1,300 MW | R9.8 bn | Year 7 |
| 5 | Regional expansion | Solar/wind/storage (SADC) | — | R8.7 bn | Years 7–10 |
6.1 Sequencing logic
The sequencing is deliberately proof-led. Project Solaris (500 MW
solar in the Northern Cape) delivers first large-scale generation and
cash flow by Year 3, establishing the operating track record, grid
relationships and financing precedent that de-risk everything after it.
Project Zephyr (750 MW wind) adds profile diversification by Year 4.
Project Titan (900 MW solar plus 500 MW battery hybrid) proves the
dispatchable hybrid model by Year 5. Project Atlas (1,300 MW standalone
storage) scales the storage platform by Year 7. Regional expansion into
Zambia, Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique extends the platform into the
SADC deficit markets in Years 7–10. Capacity reaches commercial
operation roughly two years behind capital commitment, producing the
revenue ramp modelled in Section 8.
6.2 Technology and delivery
| Element | Approach |
|---|---|
| Solar PV | Bifacial modules, single-axis tracking; Northern Cape, Free State, North West, Limpopo |
| Wind | Modern high-capacity-factor turbines; Eastern and Western Cape corridors |
| Storage | Lithium-ion BESS, 1–4 hour+ duration; grid-forming; augmentation over ~12–15 yr cycle |
| Hybrid | Co-located solar + storage for dispatchable, extended-hours delivery (Kenhardt model) |
| Trading platform | Aurora Grid Exchange: corporate PPAs, aggregation, wheeling, risk management |
| Grid & transmission | Connection assets, self-build transmission where needed, ITP participation |
Construction and completion risk is transferred to established EPC
contractors under fixed-price, date-certain turnkey contracts (the model
under which BESIPPPP projects are financed at roughly 90% non-recourse
debt), with independent-engineer certification gating lender drawdowns.
Solar and wind assets have 25-year-plus operating lives; BESS requires
augmentation over a roughly 12–15 year cycle, reflected in the
depreciation and capital assumptions.
6.3 The storage and dispatchability strategy
Battery storage is the strategic linchpin. With 1.8 GW of BESS across
hybrid (Project Titan) and standalone (Project Atlas) configurations,
Aurora Grid targets one of Africa’s largest storage platforms. Storage
does far more than arbitrage: it firms intermittent solar and wind into
dispatchable, premium-priced products; it captures the arbitrage between
low midday solar prices and high evening peaks; it earns availability
payments under BESIPPPP-style 15-year agreements with the National
Transmission Company; it provides frequency regulation and
grid-balancing services under the emerging ancillary-services market;
and it eases grid connection by smoothing output and reducing
curtailment.
The economics have inflected decisively. Utility BESS capital costs
outside China fell to around USD 125/kWh by late 2025 (a levelised cost
of storage near USD 65/MWh), and BESIPPPP bid-window pricing dropped
roughly 35% between windows. At these price points, storage is a core
component of the energy system rather than a premium add-on — which is
why Aurora Grid weights storage far more heavily (1.8 GW) than a
conventional generation IPP, and why the storage division underpins both
the dispatchable generation proposition and the trading desk’s ability
to offer firm delivery.
6.4 Resource, yield and grid-connection strategy
The portfolio is sited to combine world-class resource with
achievable grid connection — the two variables that determine an asset’s
yield and bankability. South Africa’s Northern Cape offers some of the
world’s best solar irradiance; the Eastern and Western Cape offer
strong, well-characterised wind; and co-locating storage firms both into
dispatchable products while easing connection. Grid access, not
resource, is the scarce factor, so the development pipeline is sequenced
by connection availability.
| Asset class | Resource basis | Yield driver | Grid approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar PV | Northern Cape irradiance (world-class) | Bifacial + tracking; high capacity factor | Established solar corridors; self-build where needed |
| Wind | Cape wind corridors | Modern high-hub turbines | Wind-corridor connection; ITP participation |
| Hybrid (Titan) | Solar + co-located storage | Extended-hours dispatch (Kenhardt model) | Firming eases connection & curtailment |
| Standalone BESS (Atlas) | N/A — grid-sited | Arbitrage + capacity + ancillary | Sited at transmission constraint points |
Energy yields are assessed on a P50/P90 basis — the
probability-weighted output estimates that underpin the PPA commitments
and the debt sizing. Lenders size non-recourse debt against the
conservative P90; the Company operates to P50 or better, using the
storage fleet and the trading desk to manage curtailment and route
firmed output to the highest-value offtake. This resource-and-grid
discipline is the practical foundation of the revenue build in Section
8.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd.