Aurora Grid Renewables — Funding Structure & Implementation Roadmap

The R48.5 billion capital programme and funding stack across equity, senior debt and green bonds, the grid-paced implementation roadmap, the milestones and the target investors underpinning Aurora Grid.

Aurora Grid Renewables Business PlanSection 9 › Funding Structure & Implementation Roadmap

Section 9 · Business Plan

Funding Structure & Implementation Roadmap

The R48.5 billion capital programme and funding stack across equity, senior debt and green bonds, the grid-paced implementation roadmap, the milestones and the target investors underpinning Aurora Grid.

9.1 Capital requirement and funding stack

The R48.5 billion programme is funded by a diversified stack blending
sponsor and strategic equity, infrastructure-fund and DFI capital, a
green-bond programme, and non-recourse project-finance debt. The
equity-weighted platform structure reflects the development-stage risk
profile, while individual projects are financed at the higher gearing
standard for South African renewables (BESIPPPP projects, for instance,
are typically financed at ~90% non-recourse debt). Potential funding
partners include the IFC, DBSA, IDC and AfDB.

Capital requirement R m   Funding source R m
Solar development 15,000 Sponsor equity 5,000
Wind development 12,500 Strategic investors 8,000
Battery storage 12,000 Infrastructure funds 7,000
Transmission assets 3,000 DFI funding 8,500
Trading platform 1,200 Green bonds 5,000
Working capital 2,500 Project-finance debt 15,000
Contingency 2,300
Total 48,500 Total 48,500
Figure 18
Figure 18 — Funding structure: R48.5bn (59% equity / 41% debt incl. green bonds)
Figure 19
Figure 19 — Capital deployment schedule over 10 years
Honest finding — the equity is large; capital recycling
is the mechanism

At roughly 59% equity and quasi-equity, Aurora Grid asks equity to
fund the majority of a R48.5bn programme, front-loaded into the
construction years. About R28.5bn of equity (sponsor, strategic,
infrastructure funds and DFIs) must be committed and staged against
milestones, alongside R15.0bn of project debt and a R5.0bn green bond.
The moderate platform-level gearing keeps consolidated debt safe, but it
means equity carries the capital burden and returns lean on delivery and
the exit. The capital-recycling model is the intended mechanism to
relieve this: refinancing stabilised projects at the higher non-recourse
gearing standard releases equity to redeploy into later phases, reducing
the net new equity required and lifting returns. Investors and lenders
should structure the facilities to enable this recycling from the
outset, and should note the sponsor’s returns are computed on a narrower
R20bn equity base than the full stack.

9.2 Implementation roadmap

The programme runs over ten years, phased around grid access and
project financial closes rather than a fixed calendar. Critical-path
items are grid-connection applications (which gate generation and
revenue), the project financial closes, and the establishment of the
Aurora Grid Exchange trading platform. Capital recycling runs from Year
4 as the first projects stabilise.

Figure 20
Figure 20 — 10-year build-out Gantt

9.3 Milestones and dependencies

Milestone Target Depends on Gate
Platform, team & capital raise Year 1 Sponsor & strategic capital Holdco ready
Aurora Grid Exchange live Year 2 Trading licence; systems Trading revenue
Solaris 500 MW COD Year 3 Grid; PPA; construction First generation revenue
Zephyr 750 MW COD Year 4 Wind grid corridors; construction Profile diversification
Titan hybrid COD (900+500 MW) Year 5 Grid; hybrid EPC Dispatchable hybrid
Atlas 1,300 MW BESS COD Year 7 BESIPPPP-style offtake; grid Storage scale
First refinancing / capital recycle Year 4+ Stabilised assets Equity release
Regional expansion Years 7–10 SADC frameworks; proven model Regional scale

9.4 Delivery discipline and capital recycling

Execution risk concentrates in grid access and the disciplined
execution of the capital-recycling model. The programme runs under
formal stage-gates — no generation project advances to construction
without secured grid connection and committed offtake — and the
capital-recycling engine is managed actively to fund growth without
proportionate new equity.

  • Grid before capital. No major generation capital
    is committed without a secured connection path — the discipline that
    protects against stranded assets in a grid-constrained market;
    storage-heavy design eases connection.
  • Recycle to grow. Stabilised projects are
    refinanced at the higher non-recourse gearing standard, releasing equity
    to fund the next phase — the engine that lets the platform reach 9 GW
    without proportionate new equity at each step.
  • Ring-fence and green-label. Each project SPV
    carries its own non-recourse financing and completion support; the green
    bond is ring-fenced to eligible assets with independent use-of-proceeds
    verification.

9.5 Precedent transactions and financing comparables

The financing plan is anchored in recent, observable South African
renewable and storage precedents, which validate both the structures and
the appetite of the capital pools Aurora Grid targets.

Precedent Structure Relevance to Aurora Grid
Scatec Kenhardt (225 MW/1,140 MWh) ~USD 1bn; 20-yr Eskom PPA; RMIPPPP; Standard Bank / BII debt Hybrid solar-plus-storage bankability; dispatchable PPA
Scatec Mogobe / Haru BESS ~90% non-recourse debt; 15-yr NTCSA availability Standalone BESS financeability; storage revenue model
BESIPPPP windows 1–3 616 MW (W3); ~35% price fall W1→W2 Storage procurement depth; falling cost curve
Mulilo Oasis (257 MW/1,028 MWh) Utility-scale standalone storage, COD ~2026 Scale storage precedent on the continent
Corporate PPA / wheeling market Multi-offtaker wheeling; trader-aggregators Validates Aurora Grid Exchange model

Two lessons carry into the funding structure. First, South African
renewable and storage projects are routinely financed at high
non-recourse gearing (roughly 90% for BESIPPPP), which is the basis for
Aurora Grid’s capital-recycling thesis: stabilised projects can be
refinanced to release equity. Second, DFI and development-bank
participation (BII at Kenhardt; the IFC, DBSA, IDC and AfDB across the
market) is a recurring feature that de-risks and catalyses commercial
capital — which is why DFIs anchor Aurora Grid’s early-phase equity.

9.6 Capital-structure optimisation and green financing

The initial 59:41 equity-to-debt platform structure is deliberately
moderate for a development-stage business, but it is not the steady
state. As each generation and storage asset stabilises — reaching
commercial operation with contracted cash flows — its risk profile falls
sharply, supporting materially higher gearing. The Plan therefore
contemplates phased re-leveraging: refinancing stabilised assets toward
the ~90% non-recourse gearing that South African renewable and BESIPPPP
projects routinely achieve, releasing equity for redeployment or
distribution.

Phase Financing approach Rationale
Construction / ramp Moderate platform gearing; equity + green bond De-risk debt through construction and lease-up
Post-COD stabilisation Refinance toward project non-recourse gearing Contracted cash flows support high gearing
Platform maturity Portfolio green bonds; holdco leverage Optimise blended cost; deepen ESG financing
Pre-exit Recap / dividend recap Release equity value ahead of sale

The green-bond dimension is central. As a pure-play clean-energy
platform, Aurora Grid can access the growing green- and
sustainability-linked bond market at a pricing benefit (a modest
“greenium”) and with a deep, mandate-driven investor base. Expanding
green-bond issuance as assets stabilise both lowers the blended cost of
capital and reinforces the ESG positioning that anchors the exit thesis.
Modelling the base case at moderate platform gearing is prudent and, if
anything, understates the equity return available through disciplined
re-leveraging and recycling — an upside the Plan flags for investors and
lenders to structure around.

9.7 Target investors and capital-raising strategy

The raise is sequenced to match investor mandates to risk phases.
Development and construction capital is anchored by sponsor, strategic
and DFI investors able to underwrite build risk; infrastructure and
pension funds enter as assets stabilise and the profile becomes
annuity-like; green-bond investors fund eligible renewable assets; and
senior lenders provide non-recourse project debt against contracted PPA
and availability revenue.

Investor type Mandate fit Entry point
Sponsor & strategic equity Development risk; strategic value Financial close, Phase 1
Development finance institutions Climate impact; blended finance Construction; concessional/catalytic
Infrastructure & pension funds Contracted, long-dated, inflation-linked cash Post-stabilisation; re-leveraging
Sovereign wealth funds Strategic energy infrastructure at scale Platform maturity
Green-bond & climate investors Certified green use-of-proceeds Green-bond tranche; refinancing
Senior & DFI lenders Non-recourse debt vs contracted revenue Project-level financial close

The DFI role is pivotal in the early phases: beyond capital, DFI
participation brings governance standards, blended-finance instruments
and a catalytic signalling effect that de-risks commercial and
infrastructure-fund capital. The platform’s climate impact — over 22 Mt
of CO₂ avoided annually — positions it strongly for this pool, bridging
the development-stage risk premium until contracted cash flows attract
lower-cost infrastructure and green-bond capital. The sponsor’s headline
returns are computed on a R20bn equity base; this Plan raises and
returns on the full R28.5bn stack, a more complete basis that investors
should note when comparing to the sponsor’s 8.1x.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Grid Renewables Holdings (Pty) Ltd.