Sakhile Construction Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across contract, financial, operational and compliance risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The CIDB Grading Ladder
- 3. The Market in 2026
- 4. Strategy: Private Work First
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. The Working Capital Problem
- 7. Retention and Guarantees
- 8. Unit Economics of a Contract
- 9. The Five-Year Roadmap and Gates
- 10. Funding
- 11. Estimating and Contract Control
- 12. People and Plant
- 13. Compliance and Registrations
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Estimating error |
High |
Very High |
Priced bill of quantities on every bid; labour constants from the company’s own completed contracts; refreshed material quotations; monthly cost report per contract. Three points of margin is R1.56m against R3.52m of EBITDA. |
Contracts director |
|
Payment delay beyond plan |
High |
Very High |
Complete claim documentation; monthly certification; disciplined chasing from day one; delay priced into preliminaries; public order book capped against facility capacity. 60% of public payments are delayed beyond 30 days. |
Finance |
|
Working capital exhaustion |
High |
Very High |
Growth equity at Year 3; facility sized to the debtor book; the rule that the public order book must be fundable through a 90-day delay. Net working capital reaches R9.62m. |
Board |
|
Register of Projects failure |
Medium |
High |
Written confirmation of registration at every award, chased within the 21 days. An unregistered project earns no works capability credit whatever its value. |
Contracts director |
|
Registration lapse |
Low |
Very High |
Diarised renewal calendar with a named owner. Auto-suspension from 1 January 2026 removes the company from the Register the day after expiry, with no grace period. |
Finance |
|
Materials price movement |
High |
High |
Quotations refreshed at bid; fixed-price subcontracts where obtainable; escalation clauses on longer contracts. A 10% movement is R1.95m. |
Estimating |
|
Retention not claimed |
Medium |
High |
Retention register recording every contract, practical completion date, defects liability expiry and amount due. R4.21m is released in Year 5 alone. |
Finance |
|
Order book shortfall |
Medium |
High |
Margin of safety is 16.0% on the finance-inclusive break-even — roughly two contracts. Private and public work run in parallel to reduce correlation. |
Contracts director |
|
Guarantee capacity exhausted |
Medium |
Medium |
Capacity is sized against the balance sheet; retained earnings expand it. A fully committed facility caps the order book regardless of demand. |
Board |
|
Skilled site staff loss |
Medium |
High |
The sector describes skills as very problematic. Site management appointed at Year 3 and retained; training funded from Year 4. |
Contracts director |
|
Contractual risk transfer |
High |
Medium |
Contract terms read and priced at bid rather than accepted. A risk transferred is a cost, and it belongs in the rate. |
Estimating |
|
Client insolvency or project cancellation |
Low |
High |
Credit assessment on private clients; concentration limits; work in progress kept current through monthly certification. |
Finance |