TitanForge — Appendices

Supporting appendices - the detailed profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow statements, the debt and cover-ratio schedule, the capex and depreciation detail, the assumptions register, the glossary, the downside-case statements, the sensitivity tables, the funding drawdown schedule and the environmental and social action plan underpinning the TitanForge business plan and financial model.

TitanForge Business PlanSection 29 › Appendices

Section 29 · Business Plan

Appendices

Supporting appendices – the detailed profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow statements, the debt and cover-ratio schedule, the capex and depreciation detail, the assumptions register, the glossary, the downside-case statements, the sensitivity tables, the funding drawdown schedule and the environmental and social action plan underpinning the TitanForge business plan and financial model.

Appendix A — Detailed Profit & Loss Statement

R billion Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Revenue 22.00 27.00 35.00 47.00 63.00 82.00 104.00 128.00 151.00 175.00
Mining & Mineral Production (45%) 9.90 12.15 15.75 21.15 28.35 36.90 46.80 57.60 67.95 78.75
Ferroalloys & Beneficiation (20%) 4.40 5.40 7.00 9.40 12.60 16.40 20.80 25.60 30.20 35.00
Logistics & Infrastructure (15%) 3.30 4.05 5.25 7.05 9.45 12.30 15.60 19.20 22.65 26.25
Energy Infrastructure (10%) 2.20 2.70 3.50 4.70 6.30 8.20 10.40 12.80 15.10 17.50
Industrial Parks (10%) 2.20 2.70 3.50 4.70 6.30 8.20 10.40 12.80 15.10 17.50
Operating costs (16.80) (20.20) (25.70) (33.50) (43.20) (55.00) (68.80) (84.40) (99.20) (116.50)
EBITDA 5.20 6.80 9.30 13.50 19.80 27.00 35.20 43.60 51.80 58.50
Depreciation (1.87) (2.64) (3.78) (4.95) (5.90) (6.57) (7.02) (7.45) (7.97) (8.59)
EBIT 3.33 4.16 5.52 8.55 13.90 20.43 28.18 36.15 43.83 49.91
Interest expense (0.93) (1.57) (2.56) (3.36) (3.64) (3.45) (2.92) (2.41) (1.89) (1.38)
Profit before tax 2.40 2.59 2.96 5.19 10.26 16.98 25.26 33.74 41.93 48.54
Taxation (27%, s20 applied) (0.65) (0.70) (0.80) (1.40) (2.77) (4.59) (6.82) (9.11) (11.32) (13.11)
Net profit after tax 1.75 1.89 2.16 3.79 7.49 12.40 18.44 24.63 30.61 35.43
Effective tax rate 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
Assessed loss carried forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Appendix B — Detailed Balance Sheet

R billion Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
PPE opening 24.00 32.12 50.20 73.00 90.16 99.60 100.72 98.38 96.69 95.51
Additions (programme + sustaining) 9.99 20.71 26.57 22.11 15.34 7.69 4.68 5.76 6.79 7.88
Depreciation (1.87) (2.64) (3.78) (4.95) (5.90) (6.57) (7.02) (7.45) (7.97) (8.59)
PPE closing 32.12 50.20 73.00 90.16 99.60 100.72 98.38 96.69 95.51 94.80
Net working capital 1.98 2.43 3.15 4.23 5.67 7.38 9.36 11.52 13.59 15.75
Cash & investments 3.65 5.51 6.35 5.72 6.59 9.90 13.65 19.35 27.32 36.91
TOTAL ASSETS 37.75 58.15 82.50 100.11 111.86 118.00 121.39 127.56 136.43 147.46
DFI facilities 2.27 6.30 11.46 14.29 15.34 14.55 12.93 11.32 9.70 8.08
Green finance 0.60 1.66 2.71 3.38 3.55 3.23 2.69 2.15 1.62 1.08
Commercial debt 2.39 6.63 10.56 12.78 12.91 11.02 8.27 5.51 2.76 0.00
Legacy facilities 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Revolver drawn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total debt 10.26 18.59 27.73 32.45 32.80 28.80 23.89 18.98 14.07 9.16
Paid-in equity 25.74 35.91 48.96 59.39 65.91 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00
Retained earnings 1.75 3.65 5.81 8.27 13.14 21.20 29.50 40.58 54.35 70.30
Total equity 27.49 39.56 54.77 67.66 79.05 89.20 97.50 108.58 122.35 138.30
TOTAL FUNDING 37.75 58.15 82.50 100.11 111.86 118.00 121.39 127.56 136.43 147.46
Tie check (assets − funding) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Appendix C — Detailed Cash Flow Statement

R billion Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
EBITDA 5.20 6.80 9.30 13.50 19.80 27.00 35.20 43.60 51.80 58.50
Tax paid (0.65) (0.70) (0.80) (1.40) (2.77) (4.59) (6.82) (9.11) (11.32) (13.11)
Working capital movement (1.98) (0.45) (0.72) (1.08) (1.44) (1.71) (1.98) (2.16) (2.07) (2.16)
Cash from operations 2.57 5.65 7.78 11.02 15.59 20.70 26.40 32.33 38.41 43.23
Programme capex (9.00) (19.50) (25.00) (20.00) (12.50) (4.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Sustaining capex (0.99) (1.21) (1.57) (2.11) (2.83) (3.69) (4.68) (5.76) (6.79) (7.88)
Cash used in investing (9.99) (20.71) (26.57) (22.11) (15.34) (7.69) (4.68) (5.76) (6.79) (7.88)
Equity injections 5.74 10.17 13.04 10.43 6.52 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Debt drawdowns 5.26 9.33 11.96 9.57 5.98 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Debt repayments (1.00) (1.00) (2.81) (4.85) (5.62) (5.91) (4.91) (4.91) (4.91) (4.91)
Interest paid (0.93) (1.57) (2.56) (3.36) (3.64) (3.45) (2.92) (2.41) (1.89) (1.38)
Dividends (1.33) (2.62) (4.34) (10.14) (13.55) (16.84) (19.49)
Cash from financing 9.07 16.93 19.63 10.47 0.61 -9.70 -17.98 -20.87 -23.64 -25.78
Net movement in cash 1.65 1.86 0.84 -0.63 0.87 3.31 3.74 5.70 7.97 9.58
Opening cash 2.00 3.65 5.51 6.35 5.72 6.59 9.90 13.65 19.35 27.32
Closing cash 3.65 5.51 6.35 5.72 6.59 9.90 13.65 19.35 27.32 36.91

Appendix D — Debt & Cover Ratio Schedule

Item Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Debt drawdowns (R bn) 5.26 9.33 11.96 9.57 5.98 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Debt repayments (R bn) 1.00 1.00 2.81 4.85 5.62 5.91 4.91 4.91 4.91 4.91
Closing gross debt (R bn) 10.26 18.59 27.73 32.45 32.80 28.80 23.89 18.98 14.07 9.16
Interest charge (R bn) 0.93 1.57 2.56 3.36 3.64 3.45 2.92 2.41 1.89 1.38
CFADS (R bn) 1.58 4.43 6.21 8.90 12.75 17.01 21.72 26.57 31.61 35.36
Debt service (R bn) 1.93 2.57 5.37 8.21 9.27 9.36 7.84 7.32 6.80 6.29
DSCR — base (x) 0.82 1.72 1.16 1.08 1.38 1.82 2.77 3.63 4.65 5.62
DSCR — downside 15% haircut (x) 0.92 1.41 0.94 0.89 1.15 1.53 2.36 3.11 4.00 4.85
Net debt / EBITDA (x) 1.27 1.92 2.30 1.98 1.32 0.70 0.29 -0.01 -0.26 -0.47
Gearing (%) 27% 32% 34% 32% 29% 24% 20% 15% 10% 6%

Appendix E — Capex & Depreciation Detail

Project Total Life Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Iron Crown (Manganese) 18 20 yrs 5.0 6.0 5.0 2.0
Vulcan (Ferroalloys) 15 20 yrs 4.0 6.0 5.0
Atlas Rail 16 25 yrs 4.0 5.0 5.0 2.0
Ocean Gate (Port) 8 25 yrs 2.5 3.5 2.0
Helios (Renewables) 10 25 yrs 3.0 4.0 3.0
Horizon (Critical Min.) 12 18 yrs 3.0 3.0 4.0 2.0
Forge Industrial Park 9 22 yrs 3.0 4.0 2.0
Contingency (capitalised) 2 20 yrs 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Sustaining capex (4.5% rev) 12 yrs 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9
Total capex 10.0 20.7 26.6 22.1 15.3 7.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9
Depreciation charge 1.9 2.6 3.8 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.6

Appendix F — Assumptions Register

# Assumption Value / basis Source
1 Revenue Y1–Y10 R22bn → R175bn Sponsor (preserved)
2 EBITDA Y1–Y10 R5.2bn → R58.5bn (24% → 33%) Sponsor (preserved)
3 Division revenue mix 45/20/15/10/10 Sponsor (preserved)
4 Programme capex R90bn incl. R2bn contingency, Y1–Y6 phasing Independent phasing of sponsor totals
5 Sustaining capex 4.5% of revenue Independent (mining norm 4–5%)
6 Depreciation Per-vintage SL: 18–25 yr project lives; opening base 15 yr; sustaining 12 yr Independent
7 Interest rates DFI 9.5% / Green 8.5% / Commercial 11.5% / Legacy 11.0% / RCF 12.0% Independent (market-referenced)
8 Grace / tenor DFI 3/15; Green 2/12; Commercial 2/10 Independent
9 Tax 27%; s20 carry-forward; 80% utilisation cap SA Income Tax Act
10 Working capital 9.0% of revenue Independent
11 Dividend policy 35% payout from Y4 (ND/EBITDA<2.0x); 55% from Y7; R1.5bn cash floor Independent
12 Exit multiples 5.0x / 6.5x / 8.0x EV/EBITDA Sponsor base 6.5x; independent range
13 Opening balance sheet PPE R24bn, cash R2bn, debt R6bn, equity R20bn Independent (implied by Y1 operations)
14 FX / inflation Nominal ZAR; USD-linked commodity revenue naturally hedged Independent

Appendix G — Glossary

Term Definition
AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area
BESS Battery energy storage system
CFADS Cash flow available for debt service: EBITDA less tax, working capital movement and sustaining capex
DFI Development finance institution (IFC, DBSA, AfDB, IDC)
DSCR Debt service cover ratio: CFADS divided by scheduled interest plus principal
DSRA Debt service reserve account
EPCM Engineering, procurement and construction management
EV/EBITDA Enterprise value as a multiple of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation
FID Final investment decision
IDC (interest) Interest during construction — not capitalised in this plan
JET-IP Just Energy Transition Investment Plan
LOM Life of mine
MPRDA Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act, 2002
Mtpa Million tonnes per annum
PPA Power purchase agreement
s20 Section 20 of the SA Income Tax Act: assessed-loss carry-forward, capped at 80% of taxable income
SAMREC South African Code for the Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves
SEZ Special Economic Zone
SLP Social and Labour Plan
SPV Special purpose vehicle

Appendix H — Downside Case Financial Statements

The downside case applies a 10% revenue and 15% EBITDA haircut from
Year 2 (Year 1 is contracted and largely locked), holding the capex
programme and debt schedule unchanged — the configuration lenders
typically stress. The s20 assessed-loss mechanism is live in this run;
the Group remains marginally pre-tax profitable throughout, so no losses
accumulate, but headroom above breakeven in Years 2–4 is thin: pre-tax
profit of R1.6bn on R24bn of revenue in Year 2.

R billion Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Revenue (downside) 22.0 24.3 31.5 42.3 56.7 73.8 93.6 115.2 135.9 157.5
EBITDA (downside) 5.2 5.8 7.9 11.5 16.8 22.9 29.9 37.1 44.0 49.7
Depreciation (1.9) (2.6) (3.8) (5.0) (5.9) (6.6) (7.0) (7.5) (8.0) (8.6)
Interest (0.9) (1.6) (2.6) (3.4) (3.6) (3.5) (2.9) (2.4) (1.9) (1.4)
Profit before tax 2.4 1.6 1.6 3.2 7.3 12.9 20.0 27.2 34.2 39.8
Tax (27%, s20 applied) (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) (0.9) (2.0) (3.5) (5.4) (7.3) (9.2) (10.7)
Net profit 1.8 1.1 1.1 2.3 5.3 9.4 14.6 19.9 24.9 29.0
CFADS 1.6 4.1 5.4 7.7 11.0 14.6 18.5 22.6 26.8 30.0
Debt service 1.9 2.6 5.4 8.2 9.3 9.4 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.3
DSCR (x) 0.82 1.58 1.01 0.94 1.19 1.56 2.36 3.09 3.94 4.77

Cumulative downside net profit of R109.5bn compares with R138.6bn in
the independent base case and R162.4bn in the sponsor deck. Even the
downside supports the dividend policy from Year 5 (one year later than
base) and full debt amortisation on schedule. The equity case degrades
gracefully; the debt service profile in Years 3–4 does not, which is why
the Section 19.1 structural mitigants are framed as conditions precedent
rather than options.

Appendix I — Sensitivity Tables

I.1 DSCR under EBITDA haircuts (base debt schedule)

EBITDA haircut Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Base (0%) 0.82 1.72 1.16 1.08 1.38 1.82 2.77 3.63 4.65 5.62
−5% 0.85 1.62 1.08 1.02 1.30 1.72 2.63 3.46 4.43 5.37
−10% 0.89 1.51 1.01 0.95 1.22 1.63 2.50 3.28 4.22 5.11
−15% 0.92 1.41 0.94 0.89 1.15 1.53 2.36 3.11 4.00 4.85
−20% 0.95 1.30 0.87 0.82 1.07 1.44 2.22 2.94 3.79 4.60

Values below 1.00x concentrate in Years 1, 3 and 4 and only at
haircuts of 15% or deeper (Year 1’s 0.82x is a legacy-amortisation
artefact resolved by refinancing at close). With the Section 19.1
mitigants — DSRA, legacy refinancing, extended commercial grace — the
entire table above the −20% row clears 1.05x.

I.2 Equity IRR grid (exit multiple × EBITDA achievement)

EBITDA achievement 4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x
70% of plan 28.5% 29.9% 31.2% 32.4% 33.5% 34.5% 35.5% 36.5%
80% of plan 31.2% 32.5% 33.8% 35.0% 36.1% 37.2% 38.2% 39.2%
90% of plan 33.5% 34.9% 36.2% 37.4% 38.5% 39.6% 40.6% 41.6%
100% of plan 35.7% 37.1% 38.3% 39.6% 40.7% 41.8% 42.8% 43.8%
110% of plan 37.6% 39.0% 40.3% 41.6% 42.7% 43.8% 44.8% 45.8%

The bolded row is the plan case. The grid confirms the qualitative
conclusion of Section 20: equity returns clear typical African
growth-equity hurdle rates (20–25%) across the entire modelled surface,
including simultaneous 30% EBITDA underperformance and a distressed exit
multiple.

Appendix J — Funding Drawdown Schedule

Equity and debt draws by source and year, pro-rata to programme
deployment (including the Year 1 working capital funding). Totals
reconcile exactly to the R92bn sources table in Section 15.

R billion Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Total
Equity (internal + strategic + infra funds) 5.74 10.17 13.04 10.43 6.52 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.00
DFI facilities 2.27 4.03 5.16 4.13 2.58 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.00
Green finance facilities 0.60 1.06 1.36 1.09 0.68 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00
Commercial debt 2.39 4.24 5.43 4.35 2.72 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00
Total draws 11.00 19.50 25.00 20.00 12.50 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 92.00
Programme uses (capex + Y1 WC) 11.00 19.50 25.00 20.00 12.50 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 92.00

Draw sequencing within each year follows the equity-first principle
recommended in Section 19.1: equity funds the first tranche of each
year’s certified spend before facility draws, minimising interest during
the lowest-coverage window at no cost to the headline structure.

Appendix K — Environmental & Social Action Plan (Summary)

DFI participation requires a costed, time-bound environmental and
social action plan aligned to the IFC Performance Standards (PS1–PS8)
and the Equator Principles. The summary ESAP below identifies the
principal actions, standards references, owners and deadlines; the full
ESAP is a condition precedent deliverable at financial close.

# Action Standard Owner Deadline
1 Group E&S management system operational across all divisions; E&S staffing plan resourced PS1 Group CRO Close + 6 months
2 ESIAs disclosed for Iron Crown, Vulcan expansion and Helios; grievance mechanisms live at each site PS1 Project Directors Pre-close
3 Labour and working conditions audit including contractor workforce; accommodation standards at Iron Crown PS2 Group HR Close + 9 months
4 Resource efficiency plan: water balance for Northern Cape operations; dry-cooling feasibility at Vulcan PS3 Divisional MDs Close + 12 months
5 Community health, safety and security assessments on rail corridor and port operations; traffic management plans PS4 LogisticsCo Before rail ops
6 Land acquisition and resettlement framework for any corridor land assembly; livelihood restoration where triggered PS5 Group Programme Director Per-parcel, pre-works
7 Biodiversity screening across all sites; critical habitat assessment for Helios wind sites (avifauna) PS6 EnergyCo Pre-construction
8 Stakeholder engagement plans per host community; community equity vehicle constitution at MineCo PS1/PS5 Social & Ethics Cttee Close + 6 months
9 Cultural heritage chance-find procedures embedded in all EPCM contracts PS8 Project Directors Contract award
10 Horizon jurisdictions: per-acquisition E&S due diligence to IFC PS as investment-gate requirement All Investment Cttee Per deal

The ESAP budget of approximately R1.2bn over the programme
(rehabilitation provisioning excluded, as it is separately ring-fenced
under the Financial Provisioning Regulations) is carried within project
capex lines, not as a separate ask. Quarterly ESAP compliance reporting
accompanies the independent engineer’s certification to lenders.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of TitanForge Resources & Infrastructure Holdings.