TitanForge — Projected Cash Flow & Debt Service
The projected cash flow and debt service, the debt-service cover and the distributions underpinning TitanForge.
Section 23 · Business Plan
Projected Cash Flow & Debt Service
The projected cash flow and debt service, the debt-service cover and the distributions underpinning TitanForge.
| R billion | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5.2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 19.8 | 27.0 | 35.2 | 43.6 | 51.8 | 58.5 |
| Tax paid | (0.6) | (0.7) | (0.8) | (1.4) | (2.8) | (4.6) | (6.8) | (9.1) | (11.3) | (13.1) |
| Working capital movement | (2.0) | (0.4) | (0.7) | (1.1) | (1.4) | (1.7) | (2.0) | (2.2) | (2.1) | (2.2) |
| Operating cash flow | 2.6 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 15.6 | 20.7 | 26.4 | 32.3 | 38.4 | 43.2 |
| Programme capex | (9.0) | (19.5) | (25.0) | (20.0) | (12.5) | (4.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) | (0.0) |
| Sustaining capex | (1.0) | (1.2) | (1.6) | (2.1) | (2.8) | (3.7) | (4.7) | (5.8) | (6.8) | (7.9) |
| Free cash flow pre-financing | -7.4 | -15.1 | -18.8 | -11.1 | 0.3 | 13.0 | 21.7 | 26.6 | 31.6 | 35.4 |
| Equity drawdowns | 5.7 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Debt drawdowns | 5.3 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Debt repayments | (1.0) | (1.0) | (2.8) | (4.9) | (5.6) | (5.9) | (4.9) | (4.9) | (4.9) | (4.9) |
| Interest paid | (0.9) | (1.6) | (2.6) | (3.4) | (3.6) | (3.5) | (2.9) | (2.4) | (1.9) | (1.4) |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | (1.3) | (2.6) | (4.3) | (10.1) | (13.5) | (16.8) | (19.5) |
| Net cash movement | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 9.6 |
| Closing cash | 3.7 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 19.3 | 27.3 | 36.9 |
19.1 Debt service cover
Cash flow available for debt service (CFADS) is computed as EBITDA
less tax, working capital movement and sustaining capex. Base-case DSCR
is 0.82x in Year 1 — below 1.0x — because legacy amortisation of R1.0bn
coincides with peak construction and the working capital build. From
Year 2 the ratio recovers, dips to 1.08–1.16x in Years 3–4 as programme
amortisation begins, then climbs steeply to above 5x by Year 10. Under a
15% EBITDA haircut, coverage falls below 1.0x in Years 1, 3 and 4.
gap
With mitigants 1–3 implemented, downside DSCR remains above 1.05x
in all years — the plan recommends lenders condition financial close on
all three.
19.2 Distributions
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of TitanForge Resources & Infrastructure Holdings.