TitanForge — Unit Economics
The unit economics across TitanForge's core divisions.
Section 13 · Business Plan
Unit Economics
The unit economics across TitanForge’s core divisions.
Bankability rests on unit economics, not aggregates. The table below
presents steady-state (Year 5–6) per-unit economics for each division’s
core product, on the basis used throughout this plan — nominal ZAR,
group transfer prices at arm’s-length netbacks.
| Metric | Mining (Mn ore) | Ferroalloys (HC FeMn) | Rail (bulk t) | Energy (MWh) | Forge Park (Mn sulphate t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume basis | 6.0 Mtpa | 650 ktpa | 35 Mtpa cap. | 3,600 GWh p.a. | 60 ktpa |
| Realised price / tariff | R2,150/t | R21,500/t | R310/t | R1,150/MWh | R48,000/t |
| Cash cost | R1,180/t | R15,800/t | R195/t | R420/MWh | R33,500/t |
| Unit margin | R970/t | R5,700/t | R115/t | R730/MWh | R14,500/t |
| Margin % | 45% | 27% | 37% | 63% | 30% |
| Key driver | Rail vs road logistics gap | Energy at 35–40% of cash cost | Utilisation ≥ 75% | LCOE vs megaflex spread | Qualification & purity yield |
Three observations matter for underwriters. First, the mining margin
assumes rail evacuation: road trucking to port would consume R550–700/t
of additional logistics cost and compress the ore margin by more than
half — the quantified expression of why Atlas Rail is not optional.
Second, ferroalloy margin sensitivity to energy is direct: every 10%
real increase in delivered power cost removes roughly R550/t of alloy
margin, and Helios locks approximately 60% of smelter demand at a
fixed-escalation tariff. Third, the energy division’s 63% margin is
contracted, not merchant — group PPAs transfer volume risk to divisions
whose demand is itself the group’s to control.
aggregate
Aggregating the unit economics above across the division mix produces
a blended Year 5–6 EBITDA margin of 30–32%, independently corroborating
the sponsor’s 31% Year 5 margin. This is the strongest single piece of
evidence for the sponsor EBITDA line preserved in this plan: it is
reproducible bottom-up from defensible per-unit assumptions.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of TitanForge Resources & Infrastructure Holdings.