TitanForge — Investment Highlights

The investment highlights - why this platform, why now, and the returns summary underpinning TitanForge.

TitanForge Business PlanSection 3 › Investment Highlights

Section 3 · Business Plan

Investment Highlights

The investment highlights – why this platform, why now, and the returns summary underpinning TitanForge.

2.1 Why this platform, why now

  • Resource endowment moat. South Africa hosts
    roughly 70% of the world’s known manganese ore reserves and supplies
    over a third of global seaborne ore. Iron Crown positions the Group at
    the low end of a structurally advantaged cost curve.
  • Beneficiation policy tailwind. The DMRE’s
    beneficiation strategy, the Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy (2025)
    and AfCFTA rules of origin all reward in-country value addition. Vulcan
    and Forge Industrial Park convert a policy obligation into a margin
    advantage.
  • Logistics self-help. Transnet’s well-documented
    rail and port capacity constraints have stranded South African bulk
    export volumes. Atlas Rail and Ocean Gate internalise the single largest
    external constraint on the Group’s revenue line — and create a
    third-party revenue stream under the private-operator access
    reforms.
  • Energy security and cost. Helios’s 1.5 GW
    displaces Eskom megaflex tariffs that have compounded well above
    inflation for over a decade, directly defending smelter margins that
    have forced competitor furnace closures, while unlocking R5bn of green
    finance at concessional pricing.
  • Battery materials optionality. Horizon’s copper,
    nickel, graphite, rare earths and lithium targets across the Zambian and
    DRC copperbelts position the Group in the fastest-growing demand pool in
    global mining.
  • Counter-cyclical diversification. Five divisions
    and eight commodities materially dampen single-commodity cycle exposure;
    infrastructure and energy revenues are contracted and volume-based
    rather than price-taking.

2.2 Returns summary

Metric Downside (5.0x) Base (6.5x) Upside (8.0x)
Y10 enterprise value R292bn R380bn R468bn
Y10 equity value (independent net cash) R320bn R408bn R496bn
Equity IRR (incl. dividends) 37.1% 40.7% 43.8%
Cumulative dividends Y4–Y10 R68bn R68bn R68bn
Incremental ungeared programme IRR 28.7% 28.7% 28.7%
Analyst note on the return profile

The IRR is unusually resilient to the exit multiple because roughly a
third of the equity return is delivered through interim dividends and
because the amortising debt schedule leaves the Year 10 balance sheet in
a net cash position. The genuine sensitivity is EBITDA achievement, not
the multiple: at 70% of plan EBITDA and a 4.5x exit the IRR is still
above 20% (Section 20.3), but the downside DSCR profile in Years 1–4 is
where lender structuring effort must concentrate.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of TitanForge Resources & Infrastructure Holdings.