TitanForge — Projected Profit & Loss

The projected profit and loss and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning TitanForge.

TitanForge Business PlanSection 21 › Projected Profit & Loss

Section 21 · Business Plan

Projected Profit & Loss

The projected profit and loss and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning TitanForge.

The ten-year projected income statement below reflects sponsor
revenue and EBITDA with the independently derived charges beneath. The
sponsor’s own net profit line is shown alongside for transparency.

R billion Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Revenue 22.0 27.0 35.0 47.0 63.0 82.0 104.0 128.0 151.0 175.0
EBITDA 5.2 6.8 9.3 13.5 19.8 27.0 35.2 43.6 51.8 58.5
EBITDA margin 24% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33%
Depreciation (1.9) (2.6) (3.8) (5.0) (5.9) (6.6) (7.0) (7.5) (8.0) (8.6)
EBIT 3.3 4.2 5.5 8.5 13.9 20.4 28.2 36.1 43.8 49.9
Net interest (0.9) (1.6) (2.6) (3.4) (3.6) (3.5) (2.9) (2.4) (1.9) (1.4)
Profit before tax 2.4 2.6 3.0 5.2 10.3 17.0 25.3 33.7 41.9 48.5
Tax (27%) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (1.4) (2.8) (4.6) (6.8) (9.1) (11.3) (13.1)
Net profit (independent) 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.8 7.5 12.4 18.4 24.6 30.6 35.4
Net profit (sponsor) 1.5 2.4 4.1 7.0 10.8 15.5 21.2 27.5 33.4 39.0
Variance 0.3 -0.5 -1.9 -3.2 -3.3 -3.1 -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 -3.6
Figure 14
Figure 14: Sponsor vs independent net profit — cumulative gap of R23.8bn

Independent net profit runs slightly ahead of the sponsor in Years
1–2 (the sponsor appears to assume heavier early charges than the phased
programme actually generates) and then falls progressively behind from
Year 3 as the full depreciation of the deployed programme and cash
interest on peak debt are recognised. Cumulative independent earnings of
R138.6bn against the sponsor’s R162.4bn is a 15% overstatement —
material for any investor underwriting off the sponsor deck, though it
does not change the investment conclusion.

Figure 15
Figure 15: EBITDA, EBIT and independent net margin progression

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of TitanForge Resources & Infrastructure Holdings.