Important Notice and Basis of Preparation

Jump to section

• Overview & contents
• i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
• 1. Executive Summary
• 2. The Business
• 3. Market Analysis
• 4. The Energy Strategy
• 5. Facility and Location
• 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
• 7. Commercial Plan
• 8. Operations
• 9. Financial Plan
• 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
• 11. Investment Analysis
• 12. Risk Analysis
• 13. Implementation Roadmap
• 14. Key Performance Indicators
• 15. Key Assumptions
• 16. Conclusion and Recommendation
• A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
• B. Appendix B: Capital and Depreciation Schedules
• C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
• D. Appendix D: Energy Model
• E. Appendix E: Risk Register
• F. Appendix F: Glossary

This business plan has been prepared for KHANYA COLD CHAIN (Pty) Ltd, a proposed 4 500-pallet multi-temperature cold store and regional refrigerated distribution business on a leased industrial shell in the Elandsfontein node of Ekurhuleni, in support of R56 390 000 of equity alongside R34 000 000 of senior debt and an R18 000 000 development finance tranche.

Basis of the figures. The financial model is built from first principles: storage revenue from pallet positions, occupancy and a published rate card rather than a growth rate applied to an assumed base, and electricity bottom-up from kWh per pallet per year by temperature regime. The income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement are fully articulated: the balance sheet is derived rather than plugged and balances to the rand in every year, and the closing cash position reconciles exactly to the cash flow statement.

Published benchmarks. NERSA approved an average increase of 8.76 per cent for Eskom direct customers effective 1 April 2026 and 9.01 per cent for municipal bulk purchasers from 1 July 2026, with a further 8.83 per cent approved for 2027/28. The Megaflex active energy charge is 720.19 c/kWh in a high-demand-season weekday peak block against 120.03 c/kWh overnight, both excluding VAT. Eskom’s energy availability factor reached 65.85 per cent year-to-date to March 2026, with baseload units available more than 98 per cent of the time. The national minimum wage is R30.23 per ordinary hour from 1 March 2026. These are cited where used.

The revolver on the balance sheet. Trade payables are stated on the 32-day basis the plan assumes; the revolver is presented as a separate liability rather than folded into payables. On that basis the base case draws R62 261 in Year 2 against a R12 000 000 facility and repays nothing within the projection, which is comfortable coverage in the base case and, as Section 12.3 shows, entirely inadequate in the downside.

What is modelled rather than measured. No reliable public inventory of South African cold storage capacity exists — industry estimates of commercial pallet positions range from roughly 400 000 to 600 000, and estimates of the market’s value range across an order of magnitude. Any capacity or market-share figure in this document is an estimate built on operator disclosures and inference rather than a measured number. The market sizing in Section 3 warrants more scepticism than the cost modelling in Section 9.

What a real venture must verify. The availability and terms of a specific building; a firm refrigeration contractor quotation; the actual Megaflex or municipal tariff applicable at the connection point and the notified maximum demand available; ammonia refrigeration regulatory approvals; and signed customer commitments before any capital is drawn. The projections are forward-looking estimates, not forecasts.

Confidentiality. This document is delivered in confidence to the named recipient. It may not be reproduced or circulated in whole or in part without prior written consent.

Contents

1. Executive Summary 4

2. The Business 8

3. Market Analysis 10

4. The Energy Strategy 12

5. Facility and Location 15

6. SWOT and Competitive Position 17

7. Commercial Plan 19

8. Operations 21

9. Financial Plan 24

10 Break-Even and Debt Service 29

11 Investment Analysis 32

12 Risk Analysis 35

13 Implementation Roadmap 39

14 Key Performance Indicators 42

15 Key Assumptions 43

16 Conclusion and Recommendation 45

A. Appendix A — Consolidated Financial Summary 47

B. Appendix B — Capital and Depreciation Schedules 48

C. Appendix C — Funding and Debt Schedules 49

D. Appendix D — Energy Model 50

E. Appendix E — Risk Register 51

F. Appendix F — Glossary 53