Khanya Cold Chain Business Plan — Appendix D: Energy Model
The energy model underpinning the solar and storage case: consumption, tariff assumptions, generation and net savings by year.
Appendix D: Energy Model
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Business
- 3. Market Analysis
- 4. The Energy Strategy
- 5. Facility and Location
- 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 7. Commercial Plan
- 8. Operations
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Risk Analysis
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Key Assumptions
- 16. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Depreciation Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Energy Model
- E. Appendix E: Risk Register
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
- D.1 The Megaflex structure
- D.2 Strategy comparison, Year 3
- D.3 Consumption and cost build
D.1 The Megaflex structure
|
Parameter |
Value |
Source |
|---|---|---|
|
High-demand-season weekday peak |
720.19 c/kWh excluding VAT |
Eskom Schedule of Standard Prices 2026/27, Megaflex, non-local-authority supply |
|
Off-peak overnight |
120.03 c/kWh excluding VAT |
Same schedule |
|
Peak-to-off-peak spread |
6.0 times |
|
|
Eskom direct increase, 1 April 2026 |
8.76% |
NERSA decision of 5 March 2026 |
|
Municipal bulk increase, 1 July 2026 |
9.01% |
Same decision, implemented under the MFMA |
|
Approved increase, 2027/28 |
8.83% |
NERSA MYPD6 |
|
Energy availability factor |
65.85% year-to-date to March 2026 |
Eskom; baseload units available more than 98% of the time |
D.2 Strategy comparison, Year 3
|
Strategy |
Year 3 cost (R) |
Saving |
Cumulative saving (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Flat grid consumption, no shifting, no solar |
5 175 719 |
— |
baseline |
|
Time-of-use load shifting only |
4 152 612 |
20% |
1 023 107 |
|
Load shifting plus 700 kWp solar |
2 740 724 |
47% |
2 434 995 |
|
As modelled: shifting, solar and standby generation |
2 904 932 |
44% |
2 270 787 |
D.3 Consumption and cost build
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total consumption, kWh |
1 668 848 |
2 219 784 |
2 542 052 |
2 760 380 |
2 916 344 |
|
Supplied by solar, kWh |
0 |
754 727 |
864 298 |
938 529 |
991 557 |
|
Grid consumption, kWh |
1 668 848 |
1 465 057 |
1 677 754 |
1 821 851 |
1 924 787 |
|
Solar share |
0% |
34% |
34% |
34% |
34% |
|
Blended rate, R per kWh |
1.38 |
1.50 |
1.63 |
1.78 |
1.93 |
|
Electricity cost |
2 453 707 |
2 337 453 |
2 904 932 |
3 423 544 |
3 925 873 |
|
As % of cold store revenue |
10.0% |
6.1% |
6.2% |
6.3% |
6.5% |
|
Naive operator cost |
2 862 951 |
4 148 413 |
5 182 053 |
6 122 053 |
7 026 471 |
|
Annual saving |
409 244 |
1 810 960 |
2 277 121 |
2 698 509 |
3 100 598 |