Khanya Cold Chain Business Plan — Financial Plan

Five-year projections: revenue building to R84.1m and EBITDA to R26.8m at a 31.9% margin, with the full cost stack by line.

Financial Plan

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9.1 Basis of preparation
9.2 Revenue build
9.3 Income statement
9.4 Segment analysis
9.5 Energy
9.6 Cash flow
9.7 Year 1 monthly cash
9.8 Balance sheet

9.1 Basis of preparation

All figures are in South African Rand and exclude VAT. The company is VAT-registered from the outset.
Year 1 runs from 1 March 2027 to the end of February 2028, aligned to the trading calendar.
Storage revenue is built from pallet positions, occupancy and a published rate card, not from a growth rate applied to an assumed base.
Electricity is modelled bottom-up from kWh per pallet per year by temperature regime, at a blended time-of-use rate of R1.38 per kWh in Year 1, escalated at 8.8% a year in line with NERSA-approved increases.
Depreciation is straight-line over the useful lives in Section 5.3. Accounting depreciation is used as a proxy for tax allowances; the section 12B and 12BA renewable-energy allowances available on the solar and battery assets would accelerate early-year deductions and are not modelled.
Corporate income tax is charged at 27% from Year 3, with the Year 1 and Year 2 assessed losses carried forward subject to the section 20 limitation capping the set-off at the higher of R1 million or 80% of taxable income.
Pre-opening costs of R4 700 000 are funded at day zero and charged to the Year 1 income statement as a non-recurring item below EBITDA.
Working capital assumes 47 debtor days and 32 creditor days. Cold storage customers are typically large and slow-paying, which is why debtor days are set above the invoice terms.
No revenue is assumed from services not described in Section 2.1, and no second site is contemplated.

9.2 Revenue build

R	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Frozen storage	12 935 936	20 308 295	25 056 254	28 630 735	31 478 988
Chilled storage	6 530 160	10 251 783	12 648 590	14 453 015	15 890 835
Ambient and staging	841 984	1 321 842	1 630 880	1 863 539	2 048 928
Handling in and out	1 234 548	1 938 133	2 391 257	2 732 390	3 004 214
Blast freezing	1 743 000	2 379 942	3 089 165	3 877 183	4 751 040
Value-added services	1 184 040	1 858 840	2 293 426	2 620 602	2 881 305
Cold store revenue	24 469 668	38 058 835	47 109 572	54 177 464	60 055 311
Distribution revenue	3 857 640	9 244 498	15 647 834	20 752 003	24 068 638
Total revenue	28 327 308	47 303 332	62 757 406	74 929 467	84 123 949

9.3 Income statement

R	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	28 327 308	47 303 332	62 757 406	74 929 467	84 123 949
Electricity	(2 453 707)	(2 337 453)	(2 904 932)	(3 423 544)	(3 925 873)
Payroll	(6 628 000)	(10 271 480)	(13 151 503)	(15 807 637)	(18 071 974)
Property lease	(5 947 200)	(6 363 504)	(6 808 949)	(7 285 576)	(7 795 566)
Fleet running costs	(1 997 491)	(4 189 059)	(6 588 875)	(8 444 365)	(9 659 689)
Other operating costs	(9 730 000)	(11 850 300)	(14 065 282)	(15 873 621)	(17 673 126)
Claims and stock loss	(152 311)	(184 915)	(180 944)	(179 789)	(177 908)
EBITDA	1 418 599	12 106 622	19 056 921	23 914 935	26 819 815
EBITDA margin	5.0%	25.6%	30.4%	31.9%	31.9%
Pre-opening costs, non-recurring	(4 700 000)	—	—	—	—
Depreciation	(8 876 310)	(9 733 452)	(10 703 095)	(11 499 524)	(12 122 738)
Operating profit / (loss)	(12 157 711)	2 373 170	8 353 826	12 415 411	14 697 077
Finance costs	(6 310 000)	(6 064 539)	(5 484 585)	(4 828 473)	(4 086 120)
Profit / (loss) before tax	(18 467 711)	(3 691 369)	2 869 240	7 586 938	10 610 957
Taxation	—	—	(154 939)	(409 695)	(572 992)
Profit / (loss) after tax	(18 467 711)	(3 691 369)	2 714 301	7 177 243	10 037 965
Net margin	-65.2%	-7.8%	4.3%	9.6%	11.9%

Figure 13. Cost structure as a percentage of revenue.

The pattern is characteristic of a capital-intensive utility-like business: heavy fixed costs, a punishing first year, and rapidly improving margin as volume arrives against a cost base that barely moves. Between Year 1 and Year 3 revenue rises 122 per cent while total operating costs rise only 62 per cent. That is operating leverage working in the plan’s favour, and Section 12.2 shows it working equally hard in the other direction.

Tax becomes payable in Year 3, and the assessed losses shelter most of it

The Year 1 loss before tax of R18 467 711 and the Year 2 loss of R3 691 369 accumulate to R22 159 080 of assessed loss. Under the section 20 limitation the set-off in any year is capped at the higher of R1 million or 80 per cent of taxable income, so Year 3 taxable income of R2 869 240 is sheltered to R2 295 392, leaving R573 848 taxed at 27 per cent, a charge of R154 939. The same mechanism produces R409 695 in Year 4 and R572 992 in Year 5, with R5 305 372 of assessed loss still carried forward at the end of the projection. The total charge across five years is R1 137 626, which is small but not nil: a projection showing profit before tax equal to profit after tax in a profitable year overstates distributable earnings and understates the cash the business actually consumes.

9.4 Segment analysis

Figure 14. Segment EBITDA. The cold store carries the business.

R	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Cold store revenue	24 469 668	38 058 835	47 109 572	54 177 464	60 055 311
Cold store EBITDA	1 888 132	11 517 094	16 844 930	20 492 039	22 635 982
Cold store margin	7.7%	30.3%	35.8%	37.8%	37.7%
Distribution revenue	3 857 640	9 244 498	15 647 834	20 752 003	24 068 638
Distribution EBITDA	(469 533)	589 528	2 211 991	3 422 895	4 183 832
Distribution margin	-12.2%	6.4%	14.1%	16.5%	17.4%

9.5 Energy

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Total consumption, kWh	1 668 848	2 219 784	2 542 052	2 760 380	2 916 344
Supplied by solar, kWh	0	754 727	864 298	938 529	991 557
Solar share of consumption	0%	34%	34%	34%	34%
Blended rate, R per kWh	1.38	1.50	1.63	1.78	1.93
Electricity cost	2 453 707	2 337 453	2 904 932	3 423 544	3 925 873
As % of cold store revenue	10.0%	6.1%	6.2%	6.3%	6.5%
Without the energy strategy	11.7%	10.9%	11.0%	11.3%	11.7%
Annual saving	409 244	1 810 960	2 277 121	2 698 509	3 100 598

Consumption rises with occupancy; cost per unit of revenue falls as the fixed base load is spread across more occupied positions. The saving against a naive operator on the same tariff totals R10 296 432 across the projection.

9.6 Cash flow

R	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Profit / (loss) after tax	(18 467 711)	(3 691 369)	2 714 301	7 177 243	10 037 965
Add back: depreciation	8 876 310	9 733 452	10 703 095	11 499 524	12 122 738
Add back: pre-opening funded at close	4 700 000	—	—	—	—
(Increase) / decrease in working capital	(1 288 506)	(1 716 869)	(1 244 441)	(926 129)	(632 530)
Cash generated from operations	(6 179 907)	4 325 214	12 172 955	17 750 638	21 528 173
Maintenance capital expenditure	—	(6 150 000)	(7 050 000)	(5 900 000)	(4 750 000)
Debt capital repaid	— (moratorium)	(4 457 568)	(5 037 522)	(5 693 634)	(6 435 987)
Revolver drawn	—	62 261	—	—	—
Net movement in cash	(6 179 907)	(6 220 093)	85 433	6 157 004	10 342 186
Opening cash	12 400 000	6 220 093	0	85 433	6 242 437
Closing cash	6 220 093	0	85 433	6 242 437	16 584 623
Revolver drawn at year end	—	62 261	62 261	62 261	62 261

Opening cash after capital expenditure, pre-opening spend and deposits is R12 400 000. The base case draws on the standby revolver in Year 2 only, to a maximum of R62 261 against a R12 000 000 facility. That is comfortable coverage in the base case and, as Section 12.3 shows, entirely inadequate in the downside. The facility must be committed at first close.

9.7 Year 1 monthly cash

Figure 15. Year 1 month-end cash and the occupancy ramp behind it.

R	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Occupancy	19%	26%	34%	42%	48%	52%
Revenue	968 006	1 311 686	1 760 420	2 146 122	2 480 797	2 647 384
Closing cash	10 294 219	8 901 279	7 929 866	7 320 767	7 026 051	6 887 821

R	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Occupancy	52%	51%	52%	63%	58%	55%
Revenue	2 678 900	2 593 356	2 680 401	3 241 695	2 994 065	2 839 484
Closing cash	6 779 196	6 590 214	6 482 999	6 903 044	7 090 474	7 132 697

The trough of R6 482 999 arrives in November, at the point where the occupancy ramp has flattened around 52 per cent and the December festive build has not yet arrived. The annual statements conceal that trough entirely; a lender underwriting this business should be looking at the monthly line rather than the annual one.

9.8 Balance sheet

R, at year end	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Property, plant and equipment	80 923 690	77 340 238	73 687 143	68 087 619	60 714 881
Deposits	1 490 000	1 490 000	1 490 000	1 490 000	1 490 000
Trade receivables	3 647 626	6 091 114	8 081 091	9 648 452	10 832 399
Cash	6 220 093	0	85 433	6 242 437	16 584 623
Total assets	92 281 409	84 921 352	83 343 667	85 468 508	89 621 903
Share capital	56 390 000	56 390 000	56 390 000	56 390 000	56 390 000
Retained earnings / (accumulated loss)	(18 467 711)	(22 159 080)	(19 444 779)	(12 267 536)	(2 229 571)
Total equity	37 922 289	34 230 920	36 945 221	44 122 464	54 160 429
Term debt — non-current	47 542 432	42 504 910	36 811 276	30 375 289	23 102 624
Term debt — current	4 457 568	5 037 522	5 693 634	6 435 987	7 272 665
Revolver drawn	—	62 261	62 261	62 261	62 261
Trade payables	2 359 120	3 085 739	3 831 275	4 472 507	5 023 924
Total liabilities	54 359 120	50 690 432	46 398 446	41 346 044	35 461 474
Total equity and liabilities	92 281 409	84 921 352	83 343 667	85 468 508	89 621 903

Figure 16. Balance sheet — asset composition.

Property, plant and equipment falls from R80 923 690 to R60 714 881 as depreciation of R8.9 million to R12.1 million a year outpaces maintenance capital of R4.8 million to R7.1 million. Total equity falls from R37 921 289 at the end of Year 1 to R34 229 920 at the end of Year 2 as the accumulated deficit deepens, then recovers to R54 161 393 by Year 5. The Year 5 current portion of term debt is R7 272 665, representing the Year 6 amortisation on a facility with several years still to run.

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