Khanya Cold Chain Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every occupancy, rate, energy, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Business
- 3. Market Analysis
- 4. The Energy Strategy
- 5. Facility and Location
- 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 7. Commercial Plan
- 8. Operations
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Risk Analysis
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Key Assumptions
- 16. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Depreciation Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Energy Model
- E. Appendix E: Risk Register
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
- 15.1 Volume, pricing and revenue
- 15.2 Cost, capital and funding
- 15.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification
15.1 Volume, pricing and revenue
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Pallet positions |
4 500 |
4 500 |
2 600 frozen, 1 500 chilled, 400 ambient across 4 200 m² |
|
Average occupancy |
46% |
88% |
A three-year ramp reflecting a six to nine month sales cycle |
|
Occupied pallets |
2 070 |
3 960 |
|
|
Frozen storage rate |
R208 per pallet per week |
R264 |
Escalated 6.2% a year; contract rate below published SME spot pricing |
|
Chilled storage rate |
R182 per pallet per week |
R231 |
Higher turn offsets the lower rate |
|
Blast freezing |
R415 per tonne |
R527 |
Two tunnels at 40 tonnes a day capacity |
|
Distribution rate |
R31 per kilometre |
R37 |
Blended regional rate |
|
Annual escalation |
6.2% |
6.2% |
Above CPI, tracking energy and wage escalation; requires an energy pass-through clause |
|
Cold store revenue |
R24 469 668 |
R60 055 311 |
|
|
Distribution revenue |
R3 857 640 |
R24 068 638 |
3 rigids growing to 12 |
|
Total revenue |
R28 327 308 |
R84 123 949 |
15.2 Cost, capital and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Electricity |
R1.38 per kWh blended, escalating 8.8% a year |
Bottom-up from kWh per pallet per year by regime; NERSA approved 8.76% for 2026/27 and 8.83% for 2027/28 |
|
Solar contribution |
34% of consumption from Year 2 |
700 kWp array, self-consumed against a coincident daytime load profile |
|
Payroll |
R6 628 000 escalating 5.5% a year |
25 employees rising to 56; national minimum wage R30.23 per ordinary hour from March 2026 |
|
Property lease |
R5 947 200 escalating 7.0% a year |
4 200 m² industrial shell, ten-year term with renewal options |
|
Diesel |
R23.50 per litre escalating 5.0% |
Gazetted price; mitigated by a fuel surcharge clause |
|
Claims and stock loss |
0.75% of storage revenue falling to 0.36% |
Improving with process maturity and monitoring |
|
Capital expenditure |
R89 800 000 |
R19 956 per pallet position; refrigeration and envelope are 50% of it |
|
Maintenance capital |
R6 150 000 to R4 750 000 a year from Year 2 |
Plant, racking, fleet additions and IT refresh |
|
Pre-opening and working capital |
R18 590 000 |
Of which R4 700 000 is expensed and R1 490 000 is deposits |
|
Equity |
R56 390 000 |
52% of the R108 390 000 requirement |
|
Senior debt |
R34 000 000 |
With a twelve-month capital moratorium |
|
DFI tranche |
R18 000 000 |
Development finance with an agro-processing or energy-efficiency mandate |
|
Standby revolver |
R12 000 000 |
Committed at first close, not sought in Year 2 |
|
Debtor days |
47 days |
Cold storage customers are typically large and slow-paying |
|
Creditor days |
32 days |
|
|
Corporate tax |
27% from Year 3 |
With assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation |
|
Exit multiple |
7.0x Year 5 EBITDA |
The return is materially dependent on this; readers should substitute their own |
15.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification
|
Assumption |
Modelled |
Evidence required before drawdown |
If it is wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Occupancy ramp to 46% in Year 1 |
46% average |
Signed multi-year contracts for 1 200 positions with take-or-pay floors |
The dominant risk. An eight-point shortfall removes R8 498 791 of Year 3 EBITDA and Year 1 cover falls below 0.22x |
|
Notified maximum demand at the connection |
Sufficient for a 4 500-pallet ammonia plant |
Written confirmation from the distributor at the specific connection point |
The site is unusable. A plant of this size cannot be connected wherever a building is cheapest |
|
Applicable time-of-use tariff |
Eskom Megaflex at the published structure |
Written confirmation of the tariff applying at the connection |
The entire energy thesis and roughly five points of margin depend on the peak-to-off-peak spread being available |
|
Refrigeration plant cost |
R27 600 000 |
Firm fixed-price contractor quotation with retention |
With the envelope this is 50% of capex on indicative pricing; a 15% overrun is R6 675 000 |
|
Insulated envelope cost |
R16 900 000 |
Same tender, same retention |
As above |
|
Lease terms |
Ten years with renewal options at R5 947 200 escalating 7.0% |
Signed heads of terms, ideally with a purchase option |
R89 800 000 of fixed plant in a building with a finite lease is the specific weakness in the exit story |
|
Ammonia MHI approval timeline |
Complete by month 7 |
Pre-application engagement with the authority |
The critical path. Delay pushes commissioning against a fixed lease and a fixed interest bill |
|
Rate card achievability |
R208 frozen, R182 chilled per pallet week |
Anchor contracts at no worse than a 15% discount |
Tariffs 6% below plan remove R7 509 175 of Year 3 EBITDA — the second-largest sensitivity |
The list is ordered by consequence. The first three determine whether the project is viable at all; the next three determine the return within a range; the last two determine the timetable and the exit. An investor with a limited diligence budget should spend it in that order, and should treat the first three as conditions precedent rather than as items to confirm during construction.