Lesedi Solar Care Business Plan — Annexure B: Assumptions Book
Benchmarked to competitive re-tender levels; CPI-escalated annually
Annexure B: Assumptions Book
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- Overview & contents
- Important Notice & Confidentiality
- Executive Summary
- Company Overview & Governance
- Industry & Market Analysis
- The Soiling Problem & Value Proposition
- Market Sizing & Demand Drivers
- Services & Revenue Model
- Contract Economics & Unit Analysis
- Technology, Method & the Water Constraint
- The LumenIQ Platform
- Operations Plan & Depot Network
- Go-to-Market & Contracting Strategy
- Competitive Positioning
- Health, Safety & Quality Systems
- Implementation Roadmap
- Financial Plan & Projections
- Funding Requirement & Use of Funds
- Returns, Scenarios & Sensitivity
- Risk Analysis & Independent Findings
- SWOT & Strategic Analysis
- Management Team & Organisation
- Transformation, ESG & Water Stewardship
- Growth Strategy, Exit & Conclusion
- Annexure A: Detailed Financial Projections
- Annexure B: Assumptions Book
- Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail
- Annexure D: Contract Unit Economics
- Annexure E: Risk Register
- Annexure F: Glossary & Methodology
|
Assumption |
Value |
Rationale |
|---|---|---|
|
Utility full O&M price |
R165,000/MW/yr |
Benchmarked to competitive re-tender levels; CPI-escalated annually |
|
Utility cleaning-only price |
R38,000/MW/yr |
Six cycles per annum on a typical Northern Cape site |
|
C&I bundled price |
R58,000/MW/yr |
Higher per-MW cost to serve, offset by lower site complexity |
|
LumenIQ subscription |
R310/MW/month |
Priced below the value of a single avoided outage |
|
Contracted capacity Y1 |
240 MW |
Founding contract book of 140 MW plus 100 MW pipeline at advanced stage |
|
Capacity growth |
+250 to 320 MW p.a. |
Two to three utility contracts plus C&I accumulation annually |
|
Renewal rate |
84–88% |
Below best-in-class to avoid overstating retention in a new business |
|
Field labour cost |
R32,000/MW/yr |
Crew cost divided by serviced capacity at target route density |
|
Fleet & fuel |
R10,000/MW/yr |
Assumes clustered routing; degrades materially without density |
|
Overheads |
23% → 14.6% of revenue |
Fixed base absorbed as revenue scales |
|
CPI escalation |
5.0% p.a. |
Applied to contract prices and cost base |
|
Capex (initial) |
R31.4m in Y1 |
Per use of funds; maintenance capex thereafter at ~7% of revenue |
|
Asset finance rate |
Prime + 1.5% |
5-year instalment sale secured on financed assets |
|
Debtor days |
78 → 60 |
Utility clients pay 45–60 days; C&I slower; improves with contract discipline |
|
Tax rate |
27% |
Assessed losses in Y1 utilised against Y2–Y3 profits, subject to the 80% set-off restriction |
|
Exit multiple |
6.0× EV/EBITDA |
Conservative for recurring-revenue field services; comparable transactions 5.5×–8.0× |