Lesedi Solar Care Business Plan — Market Sizing & Demand Drivers

Lesedi’s year-5 revenue of R139 million represents approximately 8.2% of this indicative serviceable market, an ambitious but attainable share for a…

Market Sizing & Demand Drivers

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Figure 7. Indicative serviceable market by segment.

Segment

Basis

Indicative annual market

Utility-scale full O&M

Installed IPP fleet × ~R165,000/MW/yr

~R1.05bn

Utility-scale cleaning-only

Portion contracted separately × ~R38,000/MW/yr

~R180m

C&I O&M and cleaning

Rooftop fleet × blended ~R58,000/MW/yr

~R340m

Inspection & diagnostics

Thermography, IV curve tracing, commissioning audits

~R120m

Indicative total serviceable market

~R1.69bn p.a.

Lesedi’s year-5 revenue of R139 million represents approximately 8.2% of this indicative serviceable market, an ambitious but attainable share for a well-capitalised national operator in a fragmented field, and one that leaves substantial headroom beyond the plan horizon.

Key findingThe sizing appears to over-weight utility-scale and under-weight commercial rooftop

Working backwards from the stated figures, the utility-scale O&M market of R1.05 billion at R165,000 per megawatt implies a serviceable utility fleet of roughly 6,364 MW, while the commercial market of R340 million at R58,000 per megawatt implies approximately 5,862 MW of rooftop. Against the actual installed base, roughly 2.3 to 3.5 GW of operational utility-scale photovoltaics and 8.3 GW of rooftop, the weighting is inverted. The utility figure may be forward-looking, since Bid Window 7 alone procured 2.6 GW in 2024 and much of it is not yet operational, but the Plan does not state whether the sizing is current or projected. This matters strategically rather than cosmetically: utility full-service work carries the highest price (R165,000 per megawatt) and the highest contribution margin (43%), while commercial work carries the lowest (R58,000 and 36%). If the near-term opportunity is more heavily weighted to commercial rooftop than the sizing implies, the blended margin will be under more pressure than the plan assumes, and the sales effort must cover many more, much smaller, contracts to reach the same megawatt total.

5.1 Segment characteristics

Characteristic

Utility-scale

Commercial & industrial

Typical contract size

50–150 MW

0.1–5 MW

Price per MW per year

R165,000 (full O&M)

R58,000 (bundled)

Contribution margin

43%

36%

Contract term

3–5 years

2–3 years

Renewal rate assumed

88%

72%

Sales cycle

9–18 months, formal tender

1–3 months, often broker-referred

Cost to serve per MW

Lower — route density achievable

Higher — dispersed, constrained access

Route density potential

High within corridors

High within metros

The two segments are genuinely different businesses sharing a cost base. Utility work is lumpy, tendered, high-value and slow to win but durable once held. Commercial work is granular, referral-driven, quick to win and quicker to lose. The strategic logic of pursuing both is sound, commercial volume fills crew capacity between utility mobilisations and smooths seasonal soiling patterns, but the Plan should be explicit that the two require different sales machinery, and that a shortfall in utility wins cannot be made up with commercial contracts on a one-for-one megawatt basis without materially diluting margin.