Lesedi Solar Care Business Plan — Annexure B: Assumptions Book

Benchmarked to competitive re-tender levels; CPI-escalated annually

Annexure B: Assumptions Book

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Assumption

Value

Rationale

Utility full O&M price

R165,000/MW/yr

Benchmarked to competitive re-tender levels; CPI-escalated annually

Utility cleaning-only price

R38,000/MW/yr

Six cycles per annum on a typical Northern Cape site

C&I bundled price

R58,000/MW/yr

Higher per-MW cost to serve, offset by lower site complexity

LumenIQ subscription

R310/MW/month

Priced below the value of a single avoided outage

Contracted capacity Y1

240 MW

Founding contract book of 140 MW plus 100 MW pipeline at advanced stage

Capacity growth

+250 to 320 MW p.a.

Two to three utility contracts plus C&I accumulation annually

Renewal rate

84–88%

Below best-in-class to avoid overstating retention in a new business

Field labour cost

R32,000/MW/yr

Crew cost divided by serviced capacity at target route density

Fleet & fuel

R10,000/MW/yr

Assumes clustered routing; degrades materially without density

Overheads

23% → 14.6% of revenue

Fixed base absorbed as revenue scales

CPI escalation

5.0% p.a.

Applied to contract prices and cost base

Capex (initial)

R31.4m in Y1

Per use of funds; maintenance capex thereafter at ~7% of revenue

Asset finance rate

Prime + 1.5%

5-year instalment sale secured on financed assets

Debtor days

78 → 60

Utility clients pay 45–60 days; C&I slower; improves with contract discipline

Tax rate

27%

Assessed losses in Y1 utilised against Y2–Y3 profits, subject to the 80% set-off restriction

Exit multiple

6.0× EV/EBITDA

Conservative for recurring-revenue field services; comparable transactions 5.5×–8.0×