Lesedi Solar Care Business Plan — Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail

The reconstructed downside reproduces the sponsor’s stated Year-5 EBITDA of R16.3 million exactly and confirms that the business remains solvent throughout…

Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail

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C.1 Scenario definitions

Variable	Downside	Base	Upside
MW under management at Y5	880	1,250	1,520
Blended pricing	-10%	As modelled	+7%
Contribution margin at Y5	35.0%	41.0%	44.0%
Y5 revenue	R88.0m	R139.0m	R181.0m
Y5 EBITDA	R16.3m	R36.1m	R53.4m
Exit multiple	5.0×	6.0×	7.0×
Equity IRR (sponsor stated)	14.6%	31.4%	42.8%
Multiple on invested equity (sponsor)	1.9×	3.9×	6.0×
Equity IRR (re-derived, whole equity)	22.63%	44.63%	59.94%

C.2 Downside cash trajectory (re-derived)

R million	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5	Y6	Y7
MW under management	169	317	493	669	880	1098	1324
Revenue	17.1	31.7	49.4	66.5	88.1	110.9	134.1
EBITDA	(1.3)	1.5	5.3	9.6	16.3	22.4	28.3
Capital expenditure	(26.0)	(2.2)	(3.5)	(4.7)	(6.2)	(7.8)	(9.4)
Closing cash	20.6	14.7	10.8	10.1	13.6	21.1	32.8

The reconstructed downside reproduces the sponsor’s stated Year-5 EBITDA of R16.3 million exactly and confirms that the business remains solvent throughout on the initial raise, with cash troughing at approximately R10.1 million in year four. No further equity is required at any point in the projection.

C.3 Single-variable sensitivity (equity IRR, whole equity basis)

Driver	Downside case	Base	Upside case
MW under management ±25%	32.7%	44.63%	53.6%
Blended pricing -10% / +7%	40.3%	44.63%	47.4%
Contribution margin ±3pts	41.5%	44.63%	47.5%
Exit multiple 5.0x / 7.0x	40.0%	44.63%	48.7%
Overhead absorption	41.4%	44.63%	47.2%
Fleet & fuel cost	42.5%	44.63%	46.3%