Khanya Cold Chain Business Plan — Appendix E: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across commercial, operational, financial and technical risks with mitigations.
Appendix E: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Business
- 3. Market Analysis
- 4. The Energy Strategy
- 5. Facility and Location
- 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 7. Commercial Plan
- 8. Operations
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Risk Analysis
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Key Assumptions
- 16. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Depreciation Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Energy Model
- E. Appendix E: Risk Register
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Occupancy ramp slower than plan |
High |
Severe |
The dominant risk. Break-even including debt service is 56% against a Year 1 plan of 46%, and an eight-point shortfall removes R8 498 791 of Year 3 EBITDA. Mitigated by anchor contracting of 1 200 positions before drawdown and the Section 12.4 triggers; residual risk stays high |
|
Covenant breach in Years 1 and 2 |
High |
High |
Cover of 0.22x and 1.15x is below a standard 1.30x test. Must be addressed in the term sheet through a Year 3 covenant start, an interest reserve or a longer moratorium — not discovered at the first test date |
|
Capital cost overrun |
Medium |
Severe |
Refrigeration and envelope are 50% of capex on indicative pricing; a 15% overrun on those two lines is R6 675 000. Mitigated by firm fixed-price contracting with retention held to validated performance before drawdown |
|
Electricity tariff rises faster than modelled |
High |
Medium |
Modelled at 8.8% a year against approved increases of 8.76% for 2026/27 and 8.83% for 2027/28. Mitigated by the Section 4 energy strategy and a contractual pass-through clause indexed to the published tariff |
|
Lease renewal or landlord leverage |
Medium |
High |
R89 800 000 of plant fixed into a leased building. Mitigated by a ten-year term with tenant renewal options and, ideally, a purchase option negotiated at the outset when the landlord is competing for the tenant |
|
Ammonia incident or regulatory delay |
Low |
Severe |
Major hazard installation obligations, mandatory risk assessment and emergency planning. Approval placed early in the programme as a gating item; residual safety risk managed through the competent-person regime and insurance |
|
Customer concentration |
High |
High |
Anchor tenancy of 1 200 pallets creates dependence on a small number of counterparties. Mitigated by capping any single customer at 20% of positions from Year 3 |
|
Goods-in-trust claim |
Low |
Severe |
Stored value can exceed the value of the plant, and a sustained excursion can generate a claim larger than a year of EBITDA. Mitigated by monitoring, alarming, standby generation, contractual liability limits and R1 820 000 of insurance |
|
Refrigeration plant failure |
Medium |
High |
Mitigated by multiple chambers and zoned plant so one chamber can fail without stopping the site, in-house technicians rather than a wholly external contract, and critical spares held on site |
|
Fleet utilisation below plan |
Medium |
Medium |
Distribution loses money below roughly 70% utilisation. Mitigated by capping fleet growth to stored volume and never chasing third-party line-haul |
|
Diesel price volatility |
Medium |
Low |
Modelled at R23.50 per litre escalating 5.0%. Mitigated by a fuel surcharge clause indexed to the gazetted price |
|
Load shedding returns |
Low |
Medium |
Energy availability factor has improved to about 65.85% with baseload units available more than 98% of the time. Standby generation of 1.2 MVA covers residual outages at a diesel cost well above grid rates |