GreenSavanna Hemp Industries — Sensitivity Analysis
The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on the Company’s projected Year 3 net profit. This analysis helps investors understand the range of potential outcomes under different scenarios.
Section 19 · Business Plan
Sensitivity Analysis
The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on the Company’s projected Year 3 net profit. This analysis helps investors understand the range of potential outcomes under different scenarios.
The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on the Company’s projected Year 3 net profit. This analysis helps investors understand the range of potential outcomes under different scenarios.
| Scenario | Variable Change | Revenue Impact | Net Profit Impact | Net Profit (Year 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | As projected | R28,000,000 | — | R3,270,400 |
| Revenue +10% | Revenue increases 10% | R30,800,000 | +R1,386,000 | R4,656,400 |
| Revenue -10% | Revenue decreases 10% | R25,200,000 | (R1,386,000) | R1,884,400 |
| COGS +5% | Direct costs increase 5% | R28,000,000 | (R480,000) | R2,790,400 |
| COGS -5% | Direct costs decrease 5% | R28,000,000 | +R480,000 | R3,750,400 |
| Yield -20% | Crop yield drops 20% | R22,400,000 | (R2,772,000) | R498,400 |
| Rand Weakens 15% | Favourable export pricing | R30,100,000 | +R1,039,500 | R4,309,900 |
| Interest +2% | Rate increase of 200bps | R28,000,000 | (R48,000) | R3,222,400 |
The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the Company’s financial projections are most sensitive to changes in revenue (driven primarily by crop yield and market prices) and least sensitive to interest rate movements. The diversified product portfolio and off-take agreement strategy are designed to mitigate revenue volatility, while the Company’s conservative cost structure provides a margin of safety against adverse scenarios.
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